布雷特·维尔加拉说，几个月前他在工作中收到一个神秘的日历邀请时，心里一沉：当天下午4点的视频会议。他在一家大型科技公司做了三年项目经理，团队专注于人工智能的使用与整合，自觉岗位很稳；但在电话里，他被告知团队受影响，必须在下午5点前收尾，随后邮箱就停用了，许多同事也同时被通知。

对许多劳动者来说，2025年很难：近200万人被裁。劳工统计局的11月就业报告显示失业率再次上升至4.6%，为四年来最高，但失业率与裁员仍接近历史低位。更像是停滞：招聘处于多年来接近最低水平，离职人数断崖式下滑；工资增长为正但乏力。关税不确定性、AI对生产率的影响、以及2026年消费是否延续等问题，让企业与员工进入观望。

停滞对求职者更直观：从事市场营销的莎拉·金已找工作两年，2018年入行，2021年在火热市场被挖走，合同于2023年末结束。她估计投了约1000份申请、参加了数十次面试；目前失业者中找工作超过六个月的比例接近25%。11月仍新增6.4万个岗位，但决策者可能要等很久才看到明确拐点；风险不是突然崩盘，而是长期陷入“无喜的低迷”。

Brett Vergara says a mysterious calendar invite a couple of months ago triggered dread: a 4 p.m. video call. After three years as a project manager at a large tech company on an AI-focused team, he felt secure, but was told his team was affected and he had until 5 p.m. to wrap up; then his email went dark and coworkers received the same news.

For many workers, 2025 was rough: almost 2 million people were laid off. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ November report showed unemployment rising again to 4.6%, the highest in four years, yet layoffs and joblessness remain near historic lows. The bigger story is stagnation: hiring is near the lowest in years, quits have fallen off a cliff, and wage growth is positive but lackluster amid tariff uncertainty, AI productivity questions, and 2026 demand doubts.

Stagnation is stark for job seekers like marketer Sarah Kim, who has searched for two years after starting in 2018, being poached in 2021, and seeing her contract end in late 2023. She estimates about 1,000 applications and dozens of interviews; nearly 25% of unemployed workers have been looking for more than six months. November still added 64,000 jobs, but a decisive turning point may take time, with the risk being prolonged “joyless doldrums,” not sudden collapse.