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在全球记忆体供给紧缩的背景下,中国两大记忆体晶片厂正启动迄今最激进的扩产,以缩小与 Samsung、SK Hynix 与 Micron 的差距。中国主要 DRAM 厂 ChangXin Memory Technologies(CXMT)正在上海扩建新厂,知情人士称其总产能将约为合肥基地的 2–3 倍。设备安装规划在 2026 年下半年(original: second half of 2026)左右,并于 2027 年开始量产;产品涵盖伺服器、电脑、车用与其他电子应用的 DRAM,同时在上海扩充作为 AI 关键元件的高频宽记忆体(HBM)产线,且其合肥与北京产线已满载运转。

武汉的 Yangtze Memory Technologies(YMTC)正在兴建第三座工厂,目标同样在 2027 年投产。除 NAND 外,YMTC 已决定新厂 50% 产能将用于生产 DRAM,并将与另一家本地记忆体封装业者合作打造用于 AI 运算的 HBM。多位人士表示,YMTC 透过以较不先进设备生产记忆体晶片等方式,已在很大程度上克服出口管制对设备取得的限制,且其自研 DRAM 产品开发已完成;其 DRAM 研发启动于两年多前。YMTC 曾接近成为 Apple 供应商、其 NAND 产品亦曾供 iPhone 验证,但在 2022 年被列入美国 Entity List 后计划受挫,后续则受惠于中国推动供应在地化与记忆体市场走强。

AI 运算需求正推动全球记忆体「超级循环」,价格年增幅达数百甚至数千个百分点,并已干扰多个电子市场与 2026 年产品规划;供应链人士估计景气至少可延续 2 年以上。在份额方面,Yole Group 指出 CXMT 以产能计市占约 11.1%,并估计至 2027 年将升至约 13.9%;CXMT 于 2025 年底提交上海证券交易所 IPO 申请,拟募集 295 亿人民币($4.25 billion)用于产线升级与研发。Yole 估计 YMTC 以晶圆产能计市占约 12%(2025 年),并可能在 2028 年扩至 15%。Yole Group 亚洲区负责人 Gary Huang 表示,全球供给紧缩为新进者创造更佳的财务环境以支撑扩产,而中国的在地化推进与政府支持亦促使更多企业采用替代供应来源;多位业界人士称此轮扩产主要将服务本地需求。

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Amid a severe global memory supply crunch, China’s two leading memory chipmakers are launching their most aggressive expansions to narrow the gap with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China’s top DRAM maker, is expanding in Shanghai, where total capacity is expected to be about 2–3 times its Hefei base. Tool installation is planned around H2 2026 (original: second half of 2026), with production starting in 2027; the output will target server, PC, automotive, and other electronics DRAM, while CXMT also expands high-bandwidth memory (HBM) lines in Shanghai as a critical AI component, and its Hefei and Beijing lines are already running at full capacity.

Wuhan-based Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) is building a third plant with production targeted for 2027. Beyond NAND, YMTC has decided that 50% of the new plant’s capacity will make DRAM, and it will partner with another local memory assembler to build HBM for AI computing. Sources say YMTC has largely worked around export controls on chipmaking equipment by producing memory chips with less advanced tools, and it has finalized development of its own DRAM products after starting more than two years ago. YMTC was once close to becoming an Apple supplier, with its NAND products verified for iPhones, but that plan was disrupted when it was added to the U.S. Entity List in 2022; it later found growth from China’s localization push and a strengthening memory market.

AI computing demand is driving a global memory supercycle, with prices up by hundreds or even thousands of percent year on year, disrupting multiple electronics markets and 2026 product planning; supply-chain executives estimate the favorable outlook will last at least two years and beyond. Yole Group puts CXMT at about 11.1% DRAM market share by capacity, rising to about 13.9% by 2027; CXMT filed for an IPO at the end of 2025 to raise CNY 29.5 billion ($4.25 billion) for production-line upgrades and R&D. Yole estimates YMTC’s share by wafer capacity at about 12% in 2025, potentially expanding to 15% by 2028. Yole’s Asia head Gary Huang argues the supply crunch improves financial conditions for expansion, while China’s localization drive and government support push buyers toward alternative memory sources, and industry executives say most of the added output will primarily serve local demand.
2026-02-03 (Tuesday) · 05a4de931656907d2eb42d9d45b228b86ea071ec