在2022年末，因后疫情供应链拥堵、超发的财政支票和乌克兰危机引发的第一轮能源冲击，发达国家通胀一度突破10%；到今年年初已降至约2%。然而，美国与以色列对伊朗的战争再次扰乱能源市场，霍尔木兹海峡油流量仍约为正常水平的95%以下，布伦特原油从年初约60美元升至约100美元，美国汽油价格也上扬。
牛津经济学（Oxford Economics）估计，原油维持140美元并伴随更高天然气价格两个月，可能让全球部分经济体陷入轻微衰退；《华尔街日报》对经济学家的调查则将美国临界点定在138美元。德意志银行强调冲击幅度比绝对水平更重要：1990年石油冲击时期WTI上涨166%，要达到可比冲击从当前约90美元需到约175美元；与此同时，先进经济体实际工资至少每年增长1%，2025年第四季度全球企业利润同比名义增15%，高盛基于股票、外汇等资产的指标更偏向温和放缓而非衰退。
市场化通胀预期正在抬升，经验上油价每持续上涨10美元，全年通胀最终可能上推0.3到0.4个百分点，因此在油价约100美元时，经合组织平均通胀可能升破4%，若到140美元则可能在5%到6%之间。替代宏观信号（Alternative Macro Signals）显示到7月全球月度通胀或超过0.6%（年化超过7%），Truflation显示美国当月消费品同比通胀几乎从不足1%升到接近3.5%，若政府重演2022-23年欧洲约2.5%以上GDP用于补贴能源且投放不够精准的做法，富裕国家财政压力和“财政负担叠加”将进一步加深。
After inflation in rich economies briefly topped 10% in late 2022 due to post-pandemic supply-chain strain, generous stimulus cheques, and the first Ukraine-energy shock, it had fallen to near 2% by early this year. But the U.S.-Israel war against Iran has disrupted energy markets again, with oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly about 95% below normal, Brent around $100 from about $60 at the start of the year, and U.S. petrol prices rising.
Oxford Economics says oil at $140 for two months, together with higher natural-gas prices, could push parts of the global economy into a mild downturn, while a Wall Street Journal economist survey places the U.S. tipping point near $138. Deutsche Bank stresses that shock speed matters more than level: the 1990 contraction followed a 166% jump in WTI, implying roughly $175 from today’s $90 for a comparable event; real wages in advanced economies are still rising at least 1% a year, fourth-quarter 2025 global corporate earnings are up 15% year on year in nominal terms, and Goldman Sachs’ cross-asset indicators still imply mild slowdown rather than recession.
Inflation risk is rising, with a rule of thumb that each sustained $10 oil increase adds 0.3–0.4 percentage points to headline inflation, so OECD average inflation could rise above 4% near $100 oil and potentially to 5–6% around $140. Alternative Macro Signals suggests global monthly inflation could exceed 0.6% by July (over 7% annualized), while Truflation says U.S. goods inflation this month leapt from under 1% to nearly 3.5%, and if governments repeat the 2022–23 Europe-style energy support that exceeded 2.5% of GDP with weak targeting, fiscal strain in rich countries is likely to intensify.
Source: How high could global inflation go?
Subtitle: With luck, the Iran war won’t cause a recession. But the surge in energy prices will push up the cost of living
Dateline: 3月 26, 2026 05:35 上午