多个因素推动这种转向：战前的 AI scare trade 动摇了 IBM 等公司可持续反复性收入的观感，并偏好资本支出较高、较难被颠覆的工业模式；伊朗冲突推升油价，抬升了 Exxon Mobil 和 Chevron。另有政策助力，Donald Trump 提出的银行规则修订可能使法定资本要求下降4.8%，或释放数十亿美元用于放贷、股息与回购，有利于 Goldman Sachs、Morgan Stanley 和 JPMorgan Chase & Co.。Nick Giorgi 指出价值股在商品上涨、科技泡沫破裂和信贷初起阶段常走强，第一季的轮动与这三类情境都有重叠。
持续性仍具不确定性。即便最终和平降温，战后油价可能仍高于战前，但全球去碳化与中国成为电力化社会使传统能源需求上限受限。银行股先前已被高估，Goldman Sachs 财报中的一点瑕疵便引发其股价下滑；AI scare 叙事也在淡化，因为 Nasdaq 100 已连续上涨第10天，为2021年以来最长。从1981年至今，在三年持有期内价值股仅有30%会跑赢成长股，因此短期数月优势尚不足以证明永久性体制转变。
The Iran war reset early-2026 market leadership from mega-cap technology to unloved value names. In March, the Bloomberg 500 Value Index recorded the second-strongest quarterly outperformance versus growth in more than 30 years, and it was also the strongest value lead over growth since 2000. The rally was fundamentally a style rotation, with flows shifting from software-heavy growth to value-led sectors such as banks, energy, and industrials.
Several forces supported the move: the pre-war AI scare trade, which questioned the durability of recurring revenue at firms like IBM and favored capital-intensive industrial models that are harder to disrupt, and higher oil prices from the conflict that lifted Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Policy was another catalyst, as Donald Trump’s proposed bank-rule changes could lower required bank capital by 4.8%, freeing billions for lending, dividends, and buybacks, benefiting Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Nick Giorgi said value tends to outperform in commodity surges, tech-bubble breakdowns, and early credit expansions, and first-quarter conditions looked similar.
The durability is uncertain. Even if peace reduces geopolitical risk, post-war oil may stay above prewar levels, but global decarbonization and China becoming an electrostate could cap long-term demand for traditional energy. Bank shares also appeared expensive before the reset, and a single blemish in Goldman Sachs’ report pulled its stock down. The AI scare narrative has also faded as the Nasdaq 100 logged its 10th straight gain day, the longest run since 2021. Since 1981, value has outperformed growth in only 30% of three-year periods, so a few months of leadership is not enough to confirm a durable regime change.