截至今年迄今，Intel 上涨72%，前一年则因 Nvidia 的50亿美元（US$5 billion）投资、SoftBank 的20亿美元（US$2 billion）投资，以及美国政府股权投入共同推动而上涨84%。政府持股目前估值约270亿美元（US$27 billion），高于初始投资的三倍以上且略低于美国每年育儿支出。虽然截至目前仍较2020年高点低约8%，但这依然显著落后于标普500指数超过100%的增长。
分析师观点仍偏保守。彭博追踪的52位分析师中，仅10位为买进、6位为卖出，且其买卖持共识评级仅3.15/5，为半导体制造商中最低之一。Intel 的未来12个月预估本益比已高于90倍，为1980年代以来最高，较网际网路泡沫顶峰高出超过50%，亦远高于晶片指数约21倍的平均水平。同时，预期本年每股净亏损约17美分，2027年转为每股净利0.33美元，2029年达2.13美元；Ben Reitzes已第四次上调目标价，而 Seaport Group 的 Jay Goldberg 认为市场对长期盈利上修仍偏保守，Intel 的上行惊喜可能高于 Nvidia。
In a nine-day rally that ended with a Monday close, Intel added more than US$100 billion to market value, and shares rose 53% over nine sessions, a record move for the company since its 1971 IPO and its best week since January 2020. The latest surge was sparked by Intel’s early-April disclosure that it would pay US$14.2 billion to repurchase half of its Ireland facility from Apollo, signaling visible progress in reversing years of manufacturing competitiveness concerns. Shares then rose another 3.1% on Monday after Intel joined Elon Musk’s Terafab project for Tesla, SpaceX and xAI and after Alphabet committed to use future Intel Xeon processors in its data centers.
Year to date, shares are up 72%, and in the prior year they rose 84% on the back of major external support: Nvidia’s US$5 billion investment, SoftBank’s US$2 billion investment, and U.S. government equity support, which is now worth about US$27 billion—more than triple the original amount and slightly below one year of U.S. childcare spending. Even so, Intel remains about 8% below its 2020 peak, while the S&P 500 is up more than 100%. Wall Street remains cautious: among 52 tracked analysts, only 10 are rated Buy, six are Sell, and the consensus rating is 3.15 out of 5, one of the weakest among chipmakers.
Despite momentum, valuation optics look stretched. Intel now trades at over 90 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, the highest reading in historical records back to the early 1980s, about 50% above the dot-com bubble peak, and far above an index of chip companies whose average multiple is around 21. Analyst models still project only a US$0.17 net loss per share this year, with forecasts improving to US$0.33 in 2027 and US$2.13 in 2029. Ben Reitzes raised his price target for the third time this year, while Seaport Group’s Jay Goldberg argues that the market may be underestimating Intel’s long-term recovery and that upside surprise is plausible after a difficult prior period.