西欧三大国家——英国、法国和德国——面临生活水平停滞与影响力收缩，同时民粹右翼政党在民调中居首或领先：英国的改革英国党、法国的国民联盟，以及德国部分地区的德国选择党，后者可能在明年的几场州选举中获胜。

主流领导人警告将有灾难，但他们的政绩在数字上并不亮眼：英国经历了14年的停滞，并在提高福利支出的同时征收创纪录税负；法国取消了提高法定退休年龄的改革，而三年内的第五位总理正勉力让预算案在国民议会过关；德国承诺的“改革之秋”基本无果而终。

关键趋势与恐慌相反——合法移民已见顶，且除英国外，进入欧洲的非法移民流入约为2023年的一半——而选举时间表（法国在18个月后、德国在2029年3月、英国最晚到2029年8月）表明，在权力更迭前，民主监督与接触可检验民粹派的经济主张、与欧盟单一市场冲突的风险，以及亲近专制者的倾向。

Western Europe’s three biggest countries—Britain, France, and Germany—face stagnant living standards and shrinking influence as populist-right parties top or lead polls: Reform UK in Britain, National Rally in France, and the AfD in parts of Germany, which may win a couple of state elections next year.

Mainstream leaders warn of catastrophe, yet their record is numerically thin: Britain has had 14 stagnant years and is pairing higher welfare spending with record taxes; France has scrapped a pension-age rise while a fifth prime minister in three years squeezes a budget through; Germany’s promised “autumn of reforms” largely fizzled.

Key trend claims cut against panic—legal immigration has peaked and, except in Britain, illegal inflows are about half their 2023 level—while electoral timelines (France in 18 months, Germany in March 2029, Britain as late as August 2029) suggest scrutiny and engagement can test populists’ economics, EU single-market risks, and pro-autocrat leanings before power changes hands.

Source: Can anyone stop Europe’s populist right?

Subtitle: Apocalyptic warnings by mainstream politicians are doomed to fail

Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 06:42 上午