调查发布时点接近BOJ年底最后一次政策会议（12月18–19日），月初以来市场对升息的预期快速升温。部分产业信心较强（如石油煤制品、纸浆造纸），电机略改善、汽车小幅走弱。出口商面临美国关税压力，但日美夏季已同意15%关税安排；企业评估影响有限且受惠日圆偏弱。企业规划中使用的平均汇率为147.06日圆兑1美元，较3个月前再偏弱逾1日圆。
大型非制造业DI维持+34不变；展望方面，制造业展望DI为+15，而非制造业展望DI从+34降至+28。多个内需相关行业偏悲观；另有日中关系紧张带来不确定性。资本支出方面，大型企业预期本财年（至2026年3月）年增12.6%，与先前预估大致相同。中小企业景气读数转弱，使全产业整体DI由-36降至-38，展望进一步下滑至-41；分析人士认为结果大致符合预期，可能成为BOJ近期升息的最后关键因素。
The BOJ’s quarterly Tankan survey shows large manufacturers’ sentiment improved for a third straight quarter in Oct–Dec: the headline diffusion index (DI) edged up to +15 from +14, matching expectations (the QUICK median forecast was also +15). The DI is the share of optimistic firms minus the share of pessimistic firms.
The release comes just before the BOJ’s final policy meeting of the year (Dec. 18–19), as market expectations for a rate hike have risen quickly since early in the month. Some sectors were notably upbeat, while autos slipped slightly. Exporters faced U.S. tariff pressure, though Japan and the U.S. agreed in summer to a 15% tariff arrangement; firms appeared to view the impact as limited and benefited from a weak yen. Planned assumptions used an average exchange rate of 147.06 yen per dollar, over 1 yen weaker than three months earlier.
Large nonmanufacturers’ DI was flat at +34, but their outlook DI fell to +28, while manufacturers’ outlook DI stayed at +15. Big firms across industries expect capital spending to rise 12.6% year on year for the current fiscal year (through March 2026). Labor shortages and weaker readings among medium and small firms pulled the all-industry overall DI down from -36 to -38, with an outlook of -41, reinforcing views that the survey could be a final input toward a near-term BOJ rate hike.
