地球已升温约1.1°C，正推动前所未有的安全风险。2023年底全球内部流离失所者达7,590万，非洲占近半；到2050年可能再增加2.16亿人因干旱、洪水与农损被迫迁移。气候冲击正同时削弱农产量、压缩水资源并削弱国家治理能力，使既有脆弱性放大为冲突。例如2006至2010年叙利亚干旱迫使150万农民迁徙，促成内乱；萨赫勒地区查德湖六十年缩减90%，极端组织利用政府真空提供粮水与安全，将气候压力转化为暴力。
气候变化正在重塑地缘格局。北极融冰使航程缩短40%，引发美、中、俄军事与资源布局竞争。水资源风险上升：印度与巴基斯坦共享的印度河盆地支撑3亿人口，冰川减流与季风不稳加剧戒备；衣索比亚复兴大坝与埃及、苏丹的尼罗河分配矛盾升温。海平面上升威胁低岛国领土与主权，使整国迁移与气候难民保护成为前所未有的国际法议题。到2050年气候损失可能高达每年38兆美元，反映基建毁坏、农业失收与治理负荷崩溃。
现行安全与发展框架仍停留在20世纪逻辑，忽视气候对冲突生成条件的重写。需将气候适应纳入国防与外交，为跨境河流建立争端解决机制，并提前规画迁移与韧性基建。若延误，干旱将成军事动员引信、作物歉收将触发边境封锁、大国将围绕新开放资源展开竞逐。每0.1°C的额外升温都倍增风险，而迟滞的投资将使社会脆弱性固化，最终把可控的压力推向冲突。
The planet has warmed by roughly 1.1°C, driving security risks at scale. By the end of 2023, 75.9 million people were internally displaced, nearly half in Africa; by 2050, up to 216 million more may be forced to move by droughts, floods and crop failure. Climate impacts simultaneously erode agricultural yields, strain water supplies, and weaken state capacity, turning existing vulnerabilities into conflict. Syria’s 2006–2010 drought displaced 1.5 million farmers, contributing to unrest; in the Sahel, Lake Chad’s 90% shrinkage over six decades has empowered extremist groups to fill governance vacuums with food, water and security.
Climate change is redrawing geopolitics. Melting Arctic ice opens routes that cut Asia–Europe shipping time by 40%, intensifying U.S.–China–Russia competition. Water tension is rising: the Indus basin supports 300 million people and faces glacial decline and volatile monsoons; Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam has escalated Nile disputes with Egypt and Sudan. Rising seas threaten the territory and sovereignty of island states, raising unprecedented legal questions about nationhood and refugee protection. Climate damages could reach $38 trillion annually by 2050, reflecting infrastructure destruction, harvest collapse and governance stress.
Current security and development frameworks remain mismatched to climate-driven risk. Adaptation must be embedded in defense planning, transboundary rivers need enforceable mechanisms, and migration must be anticipated rather than treated as emergency fallout. Without rapid action, drought will trigger military mobilization, crop failure will provoke border closures, and great powers will compete over newly accessible resources. Each additional 0.1°C multiplies stress, and delayed investment locks in fragility, pushing manageable pressures toward violent conflict.