市场走势反映了「赤字优先」的解读：30-year Treasury 殖利率一度上升最多 6 个基点至 4.75%，之后回落，并在稍晚收于约上升 2 个基点的 4.72%；2-year 殖利率则收于上升 2 个基点的 3.48%；美元也下跌，结束了 4-day 的连涨。交易员在司法质疑后已部分消化该裁决，而在 Trump 表示将寻求替代法律授权（包括拟议的 10% 全球关税）后，跌势仍维持，尽管部分工具看来是暂时性的。财政估算是核心：Tax Foundation 的分析指出，被判无效的关税在 10 years 内可能可增加超过 $1 trillion 的收入，而法院仍须处理已征收、约 $170 billion 的可能退款问题。
政策与资金面的含义如今取决于替代收入的时点：Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent 表示，新措施可能让 2026 的关税收入几乎不变，但短期缺口仍可能需要更高的 Treasury bill 发行，并可能在 USD repo 市场带来额外压力。策略师将该裁决描述为对企业成长与风险资产皆偏正面，且较低关税压力带来的通膨缓解，可能让 Federal Reserve 有更多空间降息；然而，黏性的 December 通膨数据与稳健的劳动成长背景使殖利率维持高位，显示在债券定价中，赤字融资需求目前仍高于任何基于通膨降温的降息乐观。
On February 21, 2026 (4:33 AM GMT+8), a US Supreme Court ruling voided President Donald Trump’s broad global tariffs, jolting the roughly $30 trillion US Treasury market because investors saw higher fiscal risk on top of still-elevated inflation. The decision removed import-tax revenue that had partially restrained a $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit and a rising national debt, while also reducing trade-policy uncertainty that had disrupted supply chains and delayed business decisions.
Market moves reflected a deficit-first interpretation: 30-year Treasury yields briefly rose as much as 6 basis points to 4.75% before easing, and later closed about 2 basis points higher at 4.72%, while 2-year yields ended 2 basis points higher at 3.48%; the dollar also fell, ending a 4-day advance. Traders had partly priced in the ruling after judicial skepticism, and losses held after Trump said he would pursue alternative legal authorities, including a proposed 10% global tariff, though some tools appear temporary. Fiscal estimates were central: Tax Foundation analysis indicated the invalidated tariffs could have raised more than $1 trillion over 10 years, and courts must still address possible refunds of about $170 billion already collected.
Policy and funding implications now hinge on replacement revenue timing: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said new measures could keep 2026 tariff revenue virtually unchanged, but near-term gaps may still require higher Treasury bill issuance, with potential added pressure in USD repo markets. Strategists framed the ruling as growth-positive and risk-positive for corporates, with inflation relief from lower tariff pressure potentially giving the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates; however, sticky December inflation data and a solid labor-growth backdrop kept yields elevated, suggesting deficit financing needs currently outweigh any disinflation-based rate-cut optimism in bond pricing.