文章以2025年为转折：亚洲成为地缘政治重心，全球重组多沿此流动；抗议外溢的火花被指向尼泊尔。作者判断2026年的亚洲抉择将「重置」全球秩序，安全与秩序更需在区域内彼此汲取，而非依赖远方强权。

数据与时间点勾勒「协议易碎化」：美越交易受阻，越南将5G合约给华为与中兴并批准使用中国COMAC；印俄互动牵动美方以12月25日为期限的乌俄谈判。区域化加速：东协于4月成立「地缘经济任务小组」以应对关税与保护主义，并出现巴基斯坦—孟加拉—中国等邻近结盟以重塑南亚权力。

经济干预的金额与流量更具体：美国对受中国大豆冻结冲击的农民推出120亿美元援助；日本若失去中国观光客，每年约100亿美元支出缺口可能迫使救助。资本趋势显示避险：2025年前9个月约1000亿美元流入不含中国的亚洲；同时中国约1兆美元贸易顺差与关税下的贸易转向，暗示规则失效与供应链脆弱正在加剧。

The piece frames 2025 as an inflection point: Asia becomes the geopolitical center of gravity, with major realignments and protest spillovers radiating outward. It argues that choices made in 2026 could “reset” global order, pushing Asian economies to treat disorder as normal and to source security more from regional ties than distant powers.

Key time markers and technical details underline “deal-breaking” risk: the U.S.–Vietnam trade push stalls as Hanoi awards 5G work to Huawei and ZTE and approves Chinese COMAC aircraft, weakening the deal’s core aim. India hosting Vladimir Putin intersects with a Dec. 25 deadline for U.S.-brokered Ukraine–Russia talks, raising the prospect of renewed U.S. pressure on India’s Russia links and related trade hopes. Regionalization accelerates as ASEAN forms a Geoeconomics Task Force in April, while neighbor-based blocs re-emerge in South Asia.

Economic intervention is quantified by fiscal backstops and cross-border flows: a new $12 billion U.S. aid package responds to China’s soybean freeze, and Japan faces a potential ~$10 billion annual tourism gap if Chinese visitors vanish. Capital trends point to Asia as a hedge: about $100 billion entered Asia (excluding China) in the first nine months of 2025. Against this, China’s ~$1 trillion trade surplus and tariff-driven trade redirection signal a world of weaker rules, higher barriers, and greater supply-chain fragility.