消费者通胀较弱：5月CPI同比上涨1.2%，与4月相同，但环比下降0.1%，显示在长期房地产放缓、国内竞争激烈以及家庭信心疲弱之下，需求仍承压。Capital Economics的Abhijit Surya表示，5月数据显示Middle East供给冲击的连锁影响仍在持续，但消费者价格通胀正显示减弱迹象。
外需仍支撑增长：5月出口同比上升19.4%，对US出货也同比大幅增加，尽管Donald Trump的关税战未能遏制中国贸易动能。原材料价格上涨9.2%，Song预计其将进入两位数水平，并可能在未来数月传导至其他价格；5月PPI环比上涨0.5%。中国2026年官方目标为CPI通胀2%，GDP增长4.5%至5%，为数十年来最低之一。
China’s factory gate prices rose 3.9% year on year in May, the fastest pace since July 2022 and the third consecutive monthly expansion. The producer price index returned to positive territory in March after years of declines, following the outbreak of the US-Israeli war in Iran, which reduced oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle. ING’s Lynn Song said the Iran war clearly accelerated what had been expected to be a more moderate PPI inflation rebound, citing a 36% rise in oil and gas extraction prices.
Consumer inflation remained softer: CPI rose 1.2% year on year in May, unchanged from April, but fell 0.1% month on month, pointing to demand pressure from the prolonged housing slowdown, intense domestic competition, and weak household confidence. Capital Economics’ Abhijit Surya said the May figures showed that ripple effects from the Middle East supply shock were still being felt, while consumer price inflation was showing signs of tapering off.
External demand continued to support growth: exports rose 19.4% year on year in May, and shipments to the US also jumped despite Donald Trump’s tariff war failing to curb China’s trade momentum. Raw materials prices climbed 9.2%, which Song expects to move into double digits and feed through to other prices in coming months; PPI rose 0.5% month on month in May. China’s official 2026 targets are 2% CPI inflation and GDP growth of 4.5% to 5%, among the lowest in decades.