最新报告估计：若东京遭遇「7级左右」直下型地震，死亡最多约18,000人，较2013年的23,000人下修，但只降低约20%，未达政府2015年设定的「约减半」目标。政府并估计未来30年内发生7级左右地震的机率为70%。新估算沿用19个地震模型；其中一个情境为规模7.3、日式震度7，震央位于江东区。

建物损失方面，完全倒塌约400,000栋，低于2013年估计的610,000栋；改善部分归因于老旧木造住宅重建。东京约90%建物符合耐震标准，与全国平均相当。18,000名直接死亡中，约12,000人来自火灾，约6,000人来自倒塌或落下物。若耐震补强率达100%，完全倒塌户数可降至目前估计的约10%。

报告首次估算「间接死亡」为16,000至41,000人（灾后健康恶化等），并指出医院与护理机构等脆弱地点若缺乏支援，风险将上升。经济损失合计约83兆日圆（约5,270亿美元）：资产直接损害45兆日圆，较前次估计约降5%；经济活动冲击37.5兆日圆，较2013年预测降21%。大型企业导入营运持续计划的比例，从2011会计年度45%升至2023会计年度76%。地震后即刻停电可能影响东京一半建物，受损电厂恐停机长达1个月。

A new report estimates a magnitude-7-class quake striking Tokyo could kill up to 18,000 people, down from 23,000 in 2013. That is only about a 20% cut, missing the government’s 2015 target to roughly halve the 2013 figure. The government also puts the 30-year probability of a magnitude-7-class quake at 70%. The study uses 19 models; one scenario is a M7.3 event with Japan seismic intensity 7, centered in Koto Ward.

Complete building destruction is projected at about 400,000 structures, versus 610,000 in 2013, partly due to rebuilding older wooden homes. About 90% of Tokyo buildings meet quake-proof standards, roughly matching the national average. Of the 18,000 projected direct deaths, about 12,000 are from fires and about 6,000 from collapses or falling debris. If seismic retrofitting reached 100%, fully destroyed homes could drop to roughly 10% of current estimates.

For the first time, indirect deaths are estimated at 16,000 to 41,000, based on outcomes from recent major disasters, with higher risk if vulnerable sites like hospitals and nursing homes lack support. Total economic fallout is put at 83 trillion yen ($527 billion): direct asset damage at 45 trillion yen (about 5% lower than before) and economic-activity losses at 37.5 trillion yen (21% lower than the 2013 projection). Business-continuity plan adoption among large firms rose from 45% in fiscal 2011 to 76% in fiscal 2023. Immediate power outages could hit half of Tokyo’s buildings, and affected plants could stay offline for a month.