Tom Hu 在中国的塑胶企业背负 730,000 美元（约 0.73 百万美元）银行贷款，营收仅足以支应费用而难以负担债务成本；银行选择展延还款以避免帐上新增逾期贷款。官方不良贷款（NPL）比率长期约 1.5%，但多数经济学家认为显著低估；Absolute Strategy Research 的 Adam Wolfe 估计接近 10%，意味约 3 兆美元贷款本应列为逾期却未被认列，且亦有人认为可能达其 2 倍。

坏帐上升与「展期／宽容（forbearance）」政策密切相关：规则要求逾期超过 90 天且无法全额偿付即应列为不良，但经济学家估计约 40% 贷款符合或已进入某种宽容安排。Absolute Strategy Research 指出约 10% 上市非金融企业连续 3 年以息税前盈余（EBIT）无法覆盖利息；Dallas Fed 研究显示「僵尸企业」在 2024 年占中国非金融企业资产 16%，高于 2018 年的 5%。匿名官员与 Victor Shih 的估计甚至将真实 NPL 比率置于 15%–20%。

宏观层面上，中国于 2026 年将成长目标下调至 4.5%–5%，且政府拟对大型银行补充逾 1,000 亿美元资本；同时以特别国债在 2026 年发行 3,000 亿元人民币（约 3,000 亿 CNY），加上 2025 年的 5,000 亿 CNY。宽容政策涵盖 9.4 兆 CNY（约 9.4 兆元人民币）贷款并延长至明年年底，另有最长 2 年房贷宽限。银行亦加速核销与处置不良：自 2020 年起每年处置逾 3 兆 CNY，2024 年约 3.8 兆 CNY 创高；高风险金融资产占比则由 2017 年峰值 30% 降至 2025 年底 4.9%，Morgan Stanley 的 Richard Xu 预期 2027 年约 3%。

Tom Hu, a plastics business owner in China, carries a USD 730,000 bank loan yet earns barely enough to cover expenses and cannot meet debt-service costs; instead of calling the loan, the bank allows deferrals to avoid adding another past-due exposure. China’s official non-performing loan (NPL) ratio sits near 1.5%, but many economists argue it is far higher: Adam Wolfe of Absolute Strategy Research estimates about 10%, implying roughly USD 3 trillion of loans that should be classified as past due are not, with some suggesting as much as double.

The gap is driven by widespread forbearance. Although rules say a loan overdue by more than 90 days that cannot be fully repaid should be marked nonperforming, economists estimate about 40% of loans are eligible for or already in some form of forbearance. Absolute Strategy Research finds about 10% of listed non-financial firms have failed to cover interest from EBIT for three consecutive years, while a Dallas Fed study estimates “zombie firms” rose to 16% of non-financial corporate assets in 2024 from 5% in 2018. Anonymous officials and Victor Shih place the true NPL ratio at 15%–20%.

Policy responses aim to preserve stability but risk prolonging weak growth. China lowered its 2026 growth target to 4.5%–5% and is recapitalizing major banks with over USD 100 billion; it will issue CNY 300 billion in special sovereign bonds in 2026 on top of a CNY 500 billion program in 2025. Small-business loan rollovers cover CNY 9.4 trillion through late next year, and some underwater mortgages receive up to two-year payment holidays. Banks are also accelerating write-offs and transfers, disposing of more than CNY 3 trillion of NPLs annually since 2020 and about CNY 3.8 trillion in 2024; meanwhile, high-risk financial assets fell to 4.9% of total assets by end-2025 from a 30% peak in 2017 and are projected near 3% by 2027, per Morgan Stanley’s Richard Xu.