2025年的亚洲主轴是成长偏慢、通膨偏低，因此多国得以降息，但不少降幅更像是勉强为疲弱扩张「托底」。4月美国加征关税引发的危机感已缓和，谈判把税率压到「不舒服但不至于灾难」的程度；真正的冲击若要出现，可能要到2026年才更清楚。

中国仍可望达到北京设定的5%成长目标，但只是勉强达阵：通缩风险未退、房地产低迷留疤、资本投资下滑。外界曾期待强力刺激，但央行（PBOC）几乎按兵不动，迄今仅出现一次10个基点的调整，且决策透明度有限。泰国方面，即使9月换上更偏鸽派的新掌门，政策利率仍意外维持在1.5%，并强调前一年已降息4次；印尼则在9月财长被迫下台后，央行迅速降息并持续干预，以支撑被形容为亚洲最弱之一的卢比。

澳洲央行今年已降息3次但拒绝提供前瞻指引；随著通膨再度蠢动、景气偏热，市场押注从「继续宽松」转向「可能升息」。日本更凸显其不同步的循环：日本央行12月将利率上调25个基点至0.75%，创1995年以来最高水准，前一次调整在1月；在通膨高于2%目标下，2026年将检验经济能承受多少紧缩，以及植田和男能否留下少见的「任内利率高于上任时」的纪录。

Asia’s 2025 story is slow growth and low inflation, enabling rate cuts that often aimed only to prevent weak expansions from slipping further. The shock from US tariffs imposed in April eased after negotiations reduced duties to uncomfortable but not catastrophic levels, yet the main economic drag may still arrive in 2026.

China is set to hit Beijing’s 5% growth target, but only barely, amid deflation risk, a property slump, and falling investment. Despite talk of aggressive support, the PBOC largely stood pat, delivering just one 10-basis-point cut and offering little transparency. In Thailand, political pressure met institutional caution: even with a new, dovish-minded chief, the policy rate was unexpectedly held at 1.5% after officials highlighted four cuts in the prior year. In Indonesia, after a key minister was forced out in September, BI cut rates quickly while repeatedly intervening to support a rupiah described as among Asia’s weakest.

Elsewhere, the RBA made three cuts but avoided forward guidance; with inflation stirring and demand warm, markets have shifted from easing bets toward possible hikes. Japan underscored its different cycle: the BOJ raised rates by a quarter-point to 0.75% in December, the highest benchmark since 1995, after the previous step in January. With inflation above the 2% target, 2026 will test how much tightening the economy can absorb and whether Governor Kazuo Ueda can cement a rare legacy of leaving rates higher than he found them.