韩国记忆体晶片龙头 SK Hynix 与 Samsung Electronics 报道顾客已转向三到五年长期合约，取代过去常见的季度协议，反映出 AI 资料中心与日常 AI 应用推动的供应短缺是结构性而非循环性。这种由「保供应优先于价格」的逻辑，使投资者将 Hynix（全球第二大记忆体晶片制造商）与 Samsung 的盈利前景视为长期上升循环，而非传统记忆体产业的周而复始繁荣与崩盘。需求核心已从传统循环性消费电子，转向资金充沛的 AI hyperscaler，推高资本开支压力并降低供应端定价波动的空间。

Samsung 高阶主管 Young Hyun Jun 在三月表示 AI 正在形成「前所未有的超循环」，并将大幅提高支出以扩增晶片产能与研发，已披露的数据包括拟投入 Won110tn。分析师认为由于建设新产能需时且技术瓶颈存在，供应短缺在 2028 年前难以缓解；Macquarie 的 Daniel Kim 形容这是「无明确终点的第三个上行年」。SK Hynix、Samsung 与 Micron 共同控制约 90% DRAM 市场，亦将供应端优势转向生产商。SK Hynix 上季营运利润率为 72%，Samsung 记忆体利润率估计高于 60%，而 Nvidia 约 65%、TSMC 约 58%。Nomura 的 CW Chung 还预计第二季记忆体价格较第一季可上涨高达 50%，利润率可能超过 80%，且长期合约可降低大幅价格波动。

Bloomberg 预估 Samsung 与 SK Hynix 今年净利润分别为 151 亿美元与 115 亿美元，均高于 TSMC 的 81 亿美元，但两者估值仍低于 6 倍本益比，对比 TSMC 的约 19 倍与 Nvidia 的 22 倍。Hynix 股价近一年上涨超过 600%，Samsung 接近 300%，但风险仍存：若 AI 基础设施投资放缓，产能过快扩张可能反向出现过剩，且 CXMT、YMTC 等中国参与者可能在低阶产品段增加压力。Peter Lee（Citi）认为若 AI 热度延续，上行循环或可持续七年以上；Chris Miller 仍警告资料中心业务本身存在循环性，而 Kwon Seok-joon 指出传统晶片在 2035 年可能出现过剩，因新厂上线与中国产能扩张同步发生。

Memory chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics report that customers now prefer three-to-five-year contracts instead of quarterly agreements, reflecting that AI demand-driven supply shortages are structural rather than purely cyclical. This shift from price-first pricing to supply security supports a view of a long-duration upcycle instead of the traditional boom-and-bust pattern in memory chips. Demand has moved from cyclical consumer electronics toward deeply capitalized AI hyperscalers, which raises sustained capex demand and narrows suppliers’ pricing flexibility.

Samsung executive Young Hyun Jun said in March that AI is creating an unprecedented supercycle and signaled materially higher spending for capacity and R&D expansion, including a planned Won110tn outlay. Analysts argue shortages are unlikely to ease before 2028 because new fabs need time and technical limits constrain supply growth, with Macquarie’s Daniel Kim calling this the third year of an upcycle with no clear end. SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron jointly control around 90% of DRAM, which shifts negotiating power toward producers. SK Hynix reported a 72% operating margin, Samsung memory margins above 60%, versus Nvidia at 65% and TSMC at 58%. Nomura’s CW Chung expects second-quarter memory prices to rise up to 50% versus quarter one, potentially pushing margins above 80%, and says long-term contracts may reduce sharp price swings.

Citi analyst Peter Lee estimates this year’s net profit at about $151bn for Samsung and $115bn for SK Hynix, above TSMC’s $81bn, yet both Korean firms still trade under 6 times earnings versus roughly 19 times for TSMC and 22 times for Nvidia. Hynix shares have risen more than 600% over the past year and Samsung nearly 300%, but key risks remain. Rapid capacity expansion could later cause oversupply if AI infrastructure spending slows, while Chinese firms such as CXMT and YMTC may increase pressure on lower-end segments. Analysts split on duration: some see three to five years or more, and Peter Lee even cites over seven years if AI momentum persists, while Chris Miller says cyclical swings in data-center demand are still possible.