Donald Trump 与 Xi Jinping 维持著脆弱的科技休兵状态，但两国都在为升级的供应链冲突做准备。北京制定了法规以惩罚遵守第三方制裁的外国公司，而华盛顿的国会则推动出口管制法案，包括《Match Act》，以限制晶片制造设备和 AI 晶片的销售。北京相信其在先进制造业中正取得胜利，并有其在全球价值链中的主导地位作为支持。为了应对欧洲的贸易壁垒，中国利用其对 Nexperia 及稀土磁铁的控制来阻断工业生产。美国在去风险化方面面临挣扎，在关键矿物项目需要时间才能实现的同时，仍然依赖中国的成熟半导体。
华盛顿的战略是由一种信念所驱动，即通用人工智慧（AGI）将显著增强国家实力。美国的 AI 公司如 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 目前产生的收入是中国领先 AI 新创公司的 100 倍。Anthropic 最新 Mythos 模型的性能促使白宫辩论相关监管，且美国最近为其情报机构下达了一笔 90 亿美元（$9bn）的 AI 晶片订单，确保其拥有的运算能力超过许多中国领先的 AI 模型公司。
相反地，北京仍专注于实体工业产出而非 AI 霸权。Xi Jinping 拒绝了 Nvidia 的 H200 晶片，表明运算能力并非其首要的地缘政治考量。尽管北京阻止了 Meta 收购中国创立的 AI 应用程式 Manus，并限制了顶尖 AI 研究人员的旅行，但中国仍持续将不成比例的资金投入先进制造业，而非 AI 数据中心。中国领导人优先囤积工业投入品，认为像荷姆兹海峡（Hormuz）这类实体供应链的中断，远比 Mythos 模型的网路安全影响更为关键。
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping maintain a fragile tech truce, but both nations are preparing for escalating supply chain conflicts. Beijing enacted regulations to penalize foreign companies complying with third-party sanctions, while Washington's Congress pushes export control bills, including the Match Act, to restrict chipmaking equipment and AI chip sales. Beijing believes it is winning the advanced manufacturing race, backed by its dominant position in global value chains. To counter European trade barriers, China leverages its control over Nexperia and rare-earth magnets to disrupt industrial production. The US struggles to de-risk, remaining dependent on Chinese mature semiconductors while critical mineral projects require time to materialize.
Washington's strategy is driven by the belief that artificial general intelligence (AGI) will dramatically enhance national power. US AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic currently generate 100 times more revenue than China’s leading AI start-ups. The capabilities of Anthropic's Mythos model prompted the White House to debate regulation, and the US recently placed a $9 billion AI chip order for its intelligence agencies, ensuring more computing power than many of China's top AI model firms.
Conversely, Beijing remains focused on physical industrial output rather than AI supremacy. Xi Jinping rejected Nvidia H200 chips, signaling that computing power is not his primary geopolitical concern. Although Beijing blocked Meta's acquisition of the Chinese-founded AI app Manus and restricted the travel of leading AI researchers, China continues to direct disproportionate funding into advanced manufacturing instead of AI data centers. Chinese leaders prioritize stockpiling industrial inputs, viewing physical supply chain disruptions like those in the Strait of Hormuz as far more critical than the cybersecurity implications of the Mythos model.