SpaceX 的目标估值达 1.8 兆美元，按过去 12 个月收入计算，price-to-sales ratio 约为 95 倍，远高于 S&P 500 的 3.5 倍、Nvidia 约 20 倍、Apple 和 Microsoft 约 10 倍，以及 Walmart、FTSE 100、Topix 约 1.5 倍。作者指出，传统上 1 倍或以下被视为便宜，2 至 5 倍尚可，双位数通常已属投机，因此 95 倍显得极端。

Goldman Sachs 以 2030 年收入增加 25 倍来支持该估值，但作者认为即使采用极度乐观假设，也难以接近当前股价。IPO 至少超额认购 3 倍，上市交易首日开盘上涨 11%，显示投资者需求强劲，却也凸显估值与可衡量收入之间的巨大落差。

Morningstar 近期给予 SpaceX 7800 亿美元估值，仍不到其市值一半，且假设已相当乐观：发射业务十年内收入达 180 亿美元、利润率 20%；Starlink 年收入增长以数百亿美元以下计，营业利润率可能超过 75%。其轨道资料中心模型中，基本情境取得 4% AI 基础设施运算容量且机率 50%，失败机率 43%，Moonshot 情境仅 7%，但仍可增加 930 亿美元估值。

SpaceX’s target valuation reached $1.8tn, implying a price-to-sales ratio of about 95 times based on the last 12 months of revenue, far above the S&P 500 at 3.5 times, Nvidia at about 20 times, Apple and Microsoft at about 10 times, and Walmart, the FTSE 100, and Japan’s Topix at about 1.5 times. The author notes that historically one time or below was cheap, two to five times was acceptable, and double digits were usually speculative, making 95 times extreme.

Goldman Sachs supported the valuation by forecasting revenues to rise 25-fold by 2030, but the author argues that even wildly bullish assumptions do not get close to the current share price. The IPO was at least three times oversubscribed, and trading opened up 11 per cent on Friday, showing strong investor demand while highlighting the gap between valuation and measurable revenue.

Morningstar recently valued SpaceX at $780bn, still less than half its market capitalization, despite highly optimistic assumptions: launch sales reaching $18bn within a decade at 20 per cent margins, and Starlink annual revenue growth in the tens rather than hundreds of billions of dollars, with operating margins potentially above 75 per cent. In its orbital data-centre model, the base case gives SpaceX 4 per cent of AI infrastructure computing capacity with a 50 per cent probability, failure has a 43 per cent weighting, and the Moonshot case only 7 per cent, yet still adds $93bn of value.