俄罗斯于2022年入侵乌克兰后,战争进入以无人机与AI为核心的新阶段:坦克退场,无人机负责运送食物与爆炸物、转运装备、摧毁目标,甚至杀伤敌军;俄军士兵甚至首次在战场上向无人机投降。尽管技术进步迅速,前线却没有变得更「干净」,反而变成一个约20英里深、完全透明的致命区,使伤兵撤离极其困难。
法国历史学者 Stéphane Audoin-Rouzeau 指出,前线死亡与受伤比已接近第一次世界大战:20世纪下半叶的军医进步曾把比例从1死比2到3伤,降到阿富汗战争中的近1比10;但在今天的乌克兰,比例又退回到约1死比3到4伤,被他称为「巨大倒退」。直升机无法在无人机密集的天空中飞行,地面无人运输也常需数天才能完成撤离。
后方医院出现大量截肢病例与类似一战的面部创伤;有医生描述,2024年初在第聂伯罗24小时内收治23名伤者,疲惫的外科团队立即进行截肢。北约高层 Pierre Vandier 认为技术进步提高了战争效率,并指出第一代机器人已把杀伤区致死率大幅推高,接近一战式消耗。乌克兰国防部长 Mykhailo Fedorov 设定俄军每月5万伤亡的目标,以超出其承受能力;西方估计俄军当前月损失约3.5万人。
After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, warfare entered a new phase dominated by armed drones and AI: tanks have largely disappeared, while drones now deliver food and explosives, move equipment, destroy targets, and kill. Russian soldiers have even surrendered to drones on the battlefield for the first time. Yet the war has not become cleaner; instead, the frontline has turned into a fully transparent kill zone about 20 miles deep, making evacuation of the wounded extremely difficult.
Stéphane Audoin-Rouzeau says the fatality-to-injury ratio at the front now resembles World War I. Medical advances in the second half of the 20th century had pushed the ratio from 1 death to 2–3 injuries down to nearly 1:10 in Afghanistan, but in Ukraine today it is closer to 1 death for every 3–4 injuries, which he calls a “massive regression.” Helicopters cannot operate in drone-saturated skies, and even ground drones can take days to evacuate casualties.
Rear-area doctors report mass amputations and facial wounds reminiscent of World War I. One doctor said 23 casualties arrived within 24 hours at a Dnipro hospital earlier this year, forcing exhausted surgeons to amputate immediately. NATO’s Pierre Vandier says first-generation robotics have sharply increased kill-zone lethality, approaching World War I-like attrition. Ukrainian minister Mykhailo Fedorov targets 50,000 Russian casualties per month, while Western estimates place current Russian losses at about 35,000 monthly.