当前战争已进入第10周，美国起初预计仅持续4至6周；如今冲击已从能源供应链中断、借贷成本上升到收入增长放缓，且人命伤亡已达数千人，以伊朗和黎巴嫩为主。4月8日停火和一周后以色列与黎巴嫩达成协议的确降低了当下火力，但脆弱性持续加剧，阿联酋在3小时内遭遇4次导弹警报，显示风险未消。
在能源端，预期2026年初将出现「前所未有」盈余的预测迅速逆转：国际能源署改为称全球市场经历有史以来最大的破坏，霍尔木兹海峡封锁至少使供应量下滑10%，推动油价突破每桶100美元。短暂和平特殊窗口内，油价由近110美元/桶跌到约95美元/桶，但美国对伊朗出口禁运使价格再次逼近停火前水平。若再次冲突包括美国攻击Kharg Island、胡塞武装袭击类似霍尔木兹的Bab el-Mandeb，或伊朗打击沙乌地阿拉伯东西向管线，供应都可能再受压缩；而霍尔木兹长时间关闭将耗尽库存、抬高价格并抑制需求。
金融与实体经济传导链也同步恶化：市场不再预期今年美国降息，更多认为联邦储备局将利率维持到12月，欧元区和英国因供应冲击更受压。对消费者而言，除油价上涨、油泵花费增加外，化肥价格同样急升、任何距离运输成本亦上扬；而收入前景下滑加上不确定性同步加深。彭博经济学基准情景预测全球增长将由2025年的3.4%降至2026年的2.9%，为2020年以来最低。IMF提出三种情境而非单一预测，映射高度不确定；若封锁未能迫使伊朗让步，总统Donald Trump 可能再度恢复空袭，扩大冲突则意味更多伤亡与更大生命与生计损失。
The war has entered its 10th week, far beyond the White House’s original 4 to 6 week expectation. Economic stress now spans broken energy supply chains, higher borrowing costs, and weakening income growth, while the humanitarian toll remains in the thousands, mostly in Iran and Lebanon. Although a truce on April 8 and a follow-up deal between Israel and Lebanon lowered intensity, stability is still fragile, as shown by four missile alerts in three hours in the UAE.
On energy, forecasts shifted sharply: what was expected to be an unprecedented surplus at the start of 2026 is now described by the IEA as the largest disruption in its history. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz is said to have removed at least 10% of global supply, pushing oil above 100 USD per barrel. A brief ceasefire rally cut crude from nearly 110 to about 95 dollars per barrel, but the U.S. blockade of Iranian exports has pulled prices back toward pre-ceasefire levels. Renewed disruptions—such as a strike on Kharg Island, Houthi attacks on Bab al-Mandeb, or attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline—could tighten flows further. A prolonged Hormuz shutdown would likely deplete inventories, lift prices, and suppress demand.
Financial and real-economy channels are also deteriorating. Investors are now less willing to price in near-term U.S. rate cuts and increasingly expect rates to stay through December, with inflation risk driving that view. Households face higher costs at the pump, fertilizer inflation, and broad transport-linked price increases while income growth weakens. Bloomberg Economics projects global growth at 3.4% in 2025, down to 2.9% in 2026—the weakest since 2020—and the IMF uses multiple scenarios instead of one forecast, signalling elevated uncertainty. If Washington’s blockade does not force concessions, President Donald Trump could resume bombing, and escalation would increase both civilian casualties and economic damage.