大阪正承受日本对华立场转硬的直接经济代价。当地餐饮与旅游业高度依赖中国游客，一家和牛餐厅因中国团客锐减，销售额下降约 30%。全国层面，经济学家估算，若今年中国游客减少 25%，将令日本经济损失约 1.79 万亿日元，相当于名义 GDP 的 0.29%。在大阪，2025 年 12 月来自中国的入境人数约 17.6 万人，同比下降 45%，冲击尤为明显。

这种下滑正成为 2 月 8 日临时众议院选举的核心议题。首相高市早苗因台湾问题的强硬表态引发北京反弹，但她主张以经济代价换取长期安全。反对派警告零售、就业与收入受损，而支持者认为威慑力更重要。大阪部分商户虽承受午餐销量下降三分之一的压力，仍对高市持正面评价，认为其形象可靠，且全国民调显示执政党有望保持多数。

支持并非单一维度。关西地区此前因游客激增饱受“过度旅游”困扰，对部分居民而言，客流回落反而缓解拥挤。此外，自民党与地方势力强大的维新会结盟，维新会在 2024 年大选中包揽大阪 19 个选区，并推动 2025 年世博会筹备与防务强化。整体而言，选民正权衡安全、经济与生活质量的取舍，而中国游客的急剧下滑成为检验这一路线能否被接受的现实标尺。

Osaka is bearing the brunt of Japan’s tougher stance toward China. Local dining and tourism businesses rely heavily on Chinese visitors, and one wagyu restaurant reports sales down about 30% after group arrivals fell sharply. Nationally, economists estimate a 25% drop in Chinese visitors this year could shave roughly ¥1.79 trillion from Japan’s economy, or 0.29% of nominal GDP. In Osaka, arrivals from China fell to about 176,000 in December, a 45% year-on-year decline.

The downturn is central to the Feb. 8 snap lower-house election. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s hawkish comments on Taiwan triggered backlash from Beijing, but she argues that economic costs are justified to bolster long-term security. Opponents warn of risks to retail sales, jobs and incomes, while supporters emphasize deterrence. Even as some Osaka eateries see lunch sales drop by a third, many owners still view Takaichi favorably, and national polls suggest the ruling party remains on track for a majority.

Support reflects more than geopolitics. Kansai has struggled with overtourism, so reduced crowds are welcomed by some residents. The ruling party’s alliance with the locally strong Japan Innovation Party also matters; the party swept all 19 Osaka districts in 2024 and backs defense expansion alongside hosting the 2025 World Expo. Voters are weighing security against economic pain and quality of life, with the plunge in Chinese tourism serving as a concrete test of whether the trade-off is acceptable.