JTB预估日本2026年入境旅客将较2025年减少3%，降至4,140万人；若成真，将是自COVID-19期间的2021年以来首次年减。主因是中国旅客走弱：占整体约20%，且在日中关系紧张下被呼吁避免赴日；同时日本国内人力短缺可能限制航班与客房供给。

2025年表现强劲：JTB估海外旅客4,260万人，较2024年增16%。JNTO数据显示2025年1–11月已达3,906万人，超过2024年全年约3,687万人的前纪录；UNWTO亦指出2025年1–6月较上年同期成长21%，增幅位居全球前列。

中国市场的放缓具体化：2025年11月中国旅客仅年增3%，较先前双位数成长明显降速；2025年1–11月中国旅客约876万人，约为2019年的90%。消费端亦承压：百货免税12月初值不如去年；其中高岛屋对中客销售减35%、阪急阪神约减40%。2024年访日消费8.12兆日圆（518亿美元），中客占21%；若恶化延续，未来一年中客消费恐再减1.2兆日圆。

JTB expects foreign visitors to Japan to fall 3% in 2026 to 41.4 million versus 2025, which would be the first annual decline since 2021. The main drag is fewer Chinese travelers, who make up about 20% of visitors, amid Beijing’s call to refrain from travel to Japan. Domestic labor shortages could also constrain flights and hotel capacity, even as Japan targets 60 million visitors in 2030.

The industry surged in 2025: JTB estimates 42.6 million overseas visitors, up 16% from 2024. Japan National Tourism Organization data shows 39.06 million arrivals from January to November 2025, already above the 2024 full-year record of about 36.87 million. UNWTO reports Japan’s January–June 2025 arrivals rose 21% year on year, among the world’s fastest increases.

China-specific indicators weakened sharply. In November 2025, Chinese visitors rose only 3% year on year, down from prior double-digit growth; January–November Chinese arrivals were about 8.76 million, roughly 90% of 2019 levels. Retail signals also softened: December duty-free sales were lower, with Takashimaya’s China-linked sales down 35% and Hankyu Hanshin down about 40%. In 2024, inbound spending totaled 8.12 trillion yen ($51.8B), with China at 21%; continued strain could cut another 1.2 trillion yen over the next year.