【老蛮频道】若川普上任后对华发起贸易战，中国经济将在2025年第四季度出现“脆断”。其回顾2014年以来规模以上工业企业利润，强调2021年利润同比出现异常飙升至27.2%，并将其归因于疫情期间海外供给受限与国内税务系统强化监管等因素。文中还引用全国公共预算收入在2021年从18.29万亿元升至20.25万亿元，同比增10.7%，随后2022—2024年利润增幅多为个位数。

对2025年的走势，作者强调9月后转弱：1—9月利润同比仍为+2.8%，到1—11月已转为-0.6%。其叙事将4月中美贸易战升级对应二季度利润快速下滑，三季度在对美关税约55%且企业通过转口维持出口下出现短暂修复；四季度则因多国协定封堵转口漏洞、欧盟限制加码与反倾销调查而再度下行。10月同比-9.8%，11月同比-15.4%，并推测12月可能接近-20%。

作者给出与出口相关的制造业分行业利润对比：涉及11个行业，其中前8个最终消费品行业利润显著下滑，被解读为通过“压利润”勉强维持出口规模；举例1—11月木竹等制品利润-33.42%，皮革与制鞋-18.44%，纺织服装-18.16%。相对而言，电气设备、仪器仪表、电子设备等三大设备制造业被描述为利润相对稳定增长，但被解释为企业外迁带来的设备采购与出口的短期繁荣。作者据此将“超过1万亿美元的顺差”归因于消费品利润塌缩与设备出口上冲的叠加。

The author claims a 2025 Q4 “snap break” in China’s economy after a Trump-led trade war. Industrial enterprise profits tracked since 2014 are framed as peaking abnormally in 2021 (+27.2% YoY), attributed to pandemic-era global supply disruption and intensified tax-data capture. Public budget revenue is cited rising from 18.29 to 20.25 trillion yuan in 2021 (+10.7%), followed by 2022–2024 single-digit profit growth.

For 2025, profits deteriorate after September: Jan–Sep remains +2.8% YoY, but Jan–Nov turns -0.6%. The narrative links April’s escalation of the US-China trade war to a Q2 drop, a Q3 rebound as US tariff levels stayed near 55% and firms used re-export channels, then a Q4 slide as loopholes were blocked and EU restrictions intensified. October is -9.8% YoY, November -15.4%, with December projected near -20%.

Across 11 export-related manufacturing sectors, 8 consumer-goods industries show sharp profit compression used to sustain export volumes. Examples for Jan–Nov include wood/bamboo-type goods at -33.42%, leather & footwear at -18.44%, and textiles & apparel at -18.16%. By contrast, three equipment-oriented sectors (electrical, instruments, electronics) are said to keep profit growth, interpreted as a temporary surge from firms buying and exporting production equipment while relocating abroad. These two forces are used to explain a reported >$1 trillion trade surplus.