一些克里姆林宫高级官员认为冲突已陷入死局，Putin 希望在今年年底前以他视为胜利的条件结束战争，包括完全控制乌克兰东部 Donbas 地区，但俄军十多年来一直未能拿下该地。NATO 秘书长 Mark Rutte 表示，前线目前正在稳定，乌克兰甚至在净值上重新夺回领土。市场也转趋乐观：乌克兰 2029 年到期的美元债券周五升至每美元 84 美分的历史高位，较 3 月低点 70 美分大幅回升。
尽管乌克兰准备应对今夏新的俄军推进，并警告克里姆林宫可能再次动员征兵，乌军自冬季平静期后大致守住了阵地。据 DeepState 数据，前线到 5 月中旬已大体稳定；Alexander Stubb 称乌军伤亡比约为 1 比 5，Marco Rubio 也重申乌军已成为欧洲「最强大的武装力量」。不过，乌克兰仍未收复大部分被占领土，和平谈判也停滞不前，国内对征兵的抗拒和对空袭防御、导弹弹药的压力仍是重大挑战。
Ukraine and its allies are increasingly confident that Russia’s invasion is losing momentum as Kyiv stabilizes the front line and blunts Moscow’s spring offensive. Ukraine’s expanding use of drones has inflicted heavy Russian losses, while strikes behind the lines and deep inside Russia are fueling domestic criticism of Vladimir Putin. Economic slowdown, internet restrictions, and war fatigue are deepening the gloom among ordinary Russians and parts of the elite.
Some senior Kremlin officials now see the conflict as a dead end, even as Putin wants to end the war by year-end only on terms he considers victorious, including full control of Donbas, which Russian forces have failed to capture for more than a decade. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the front line is stabilizing and Ukraine is regaining territory in net terms. Investors have also turned more upbeat: Ukraine’s 2029 dollar bonds hit a record 84 cents on the dollar, up from 70 cents in March.
Despite preparing for another Russian push this summer, Ukraine has largely held the line since the winter lull. DeepState data showed much of the front stabilizing by mid-May, while figures cited by Alexander Stubb put the casualty ratio at roughly one Ukrainian soldier for every five Russian troops; Marco Rubio echoed that assessment, calling Ukraine Europe’s “most powerful armed forces.” Yet Ukraine still has not retaken most occupied land, peace talks remain stalled, and domestic resistance to conscription, along with shortages in missile-defense ammunition, remains a major constraint. (Key numbers: 5, 1)