中国正在加强对台湾周边海域的控制，中国海警近日在台湾东部国际水域拦截船只，要求其报告出发地与目的地。这一举动被视为中国主张对台湾附近海上交通执法权的信号，也可能预示著一场重大危机即将在未来一两年内爆发。美国情报机构认为，习近平已命令解放军在2027年做好对台行动的准备，而2028年1月台湾总统大选可能成为关键引爆点。

习近平的战略核心是「不战而胜」，透过军事施压、网路攻击、假讯息和间谍活动等多重手段，持续削弱台湾民众的士气，并动摇其对美国支持的信心。他希望一个孤立而脆弱的台湾社会最终接受被迫统一。2028年大选是关键节点，中国可能透过飞弹试射和大规模军演等高压手段试图影响选举结果，或在选举结果不如预期时采取更激进的行动，例如实施「海关检疫」式的选择性封锁，以展示中国扼杀台湾的能力。

面对这一迫在眉睫的威胁，美国的准备明显不足。川普政府为避免破坏与习近平的外交关系而拖延对台军售，五角大厦则更关注全面入侵情境而非灰色地带冲突。作者呼吁美国应尽速完成140亿美元的对台军售、加强对中国经济施压的选项、深化与日本等盟友的合作，并在坚定吓阻与审慎外交之间取得平衡，以防止2028年「建设性战略稳定」演变为新的台海危机。

China is intensifying its assertion of control over waters near Taiwan, with the Chinese Coast Guard recently contacting ships in international waters off eastern Taiwan and demanding identification of their origins and destinations. U.S. intelligence believes Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be ready for action against Taiwan by 2027, but the real flashpoint may be Taiwan's January 2028 presidential election, when Xi could decide to escalate pressure depending on the electoral outcome.

Xi's overarching strategy is to win without fighting by demoralizing Taiwan's population through a sustained multi-front campaign of military encirclement, cyberattacks, disinformation, and espionage, while building the military capability for forceful unification if necessary. The 2028 election is critical because Xi wants a compliant government in Taipei; if his preferred candidate loses or the winner resists unification, he may impose a 'customs quarantine'—selectively harassing air and maritime traffic to demonstrate China's ability to suffocate the island and test America's willingness to respond.

The United States remains underprepared for this looming crisis. The Trump administration has delayed arms sales to Taiwan to preserve diplomatic goodwill with Beijing, and the Pentagon has focused more on invasion scenarios than gray-zone contingencies. The author argues that Washington must urgently complete the planned $14 billion arms sale to Taipei, tighten restrictions on China's access to critical technologies, deepen military cooperation with regional allies like Japan, and balance firm deterrence with prudent diplomacy to prevent the situation from spiraling into a full-blown Taiwan crisis in 2028.