該政策的策略主要集中在改善購物體驗與產品質量等次要領域,卻忽略了導致民眾不願消費的根本原因。當前中國消費者面臨的主要問題並非缺乏具吸引力的商品,而是收入成長停滯、嚴重的房地產危機以及社會福利不足導致的消費意願低落。儘管政府推出了以舊換新等補貼計畫,但這主要支撐了特定工業企業,未能真正增加家庭的可用資金。
由於中國決策者目前仍依賴強勁的出口貿易來支撐經濟增長,他們缺乏足夠的動力去推動能實質提升家庭消費的大規模結構性改革。專家認為,北京當局將繼續採取僅能勉強達標的微調政策,以避免解決深層次的結構性問題。然而,在貿易夥伴日益反對並可能引發外交爭端的情況下,持續依賴外部需求而不刺激國內消費,將是中國經濟發展的一大錯失。




Beijing's recently unveiled first five-year consumption roadmap has failed to deliver the bold measures needed to make personal spending a higher strategic priority. The plan's target of reaching 60 trillion yuan in retail sales by 2030 implies a significant slowdown in the annual growth rate going forward. Such a tepid pace makes it difficult to meaningfully increase consumption's share of gross domestic product (GDP), thereby squandering an opportunity to strengthen domestic demand and ease geopolitical frictions.
The policy's strategies focus primarily on secondary areas like improving the shopping experience and product quality, yet they ignore the root causes of consumers' reluctance to spend. The main issue currently facing Chinese consumers is not a lack of attractive goods, but rather a low willingness to consume driven by stagnant income growth, a severe real estate crisis, and inadequate social welfare. Although the government introduced subsidy programs like trade-ins, these have largely supported specific industrial enterprises rather than genuinely increasing households' disposable income.
Because Chinese policymakers currently still rely on robust export trade to sustain economic growth, they lack sufficient incentive to push forward the large-scale structural reforms needed to substantially lift household consumption. Experts believe that Beijing will continue to adopt just enough incremental policies to meet its targets, actively avoiding the deep structural issues. However, with trading partners increasingly pushing back and potentially triggering diplomatic disputes, continuing to depend on external demand while failing to stimulate domestic consumption represents a major missed opportunity for China's economic development.