在 US 与 Israel 的打击中，Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei 遭到杀害后，Iran 的权力体系进入其 47 年历史中最关键的时刻之一。体制权力分散于议会、司法、军方、教士与委员会之间，但目前由 3 人临时领导委员会暂时运作国家：President Masoud Pezeshkian、Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei，以及由 Expediency Discernment Council 选出的 Alireza Arafi。这种安排使继承问题从长期猜测转为即时斗争。
几位人物同时掌握继承与危机管理的杠杆。Ali Larijani 在 2024 年总统参选受阻后，于 2025 年 8 月出任 Supreme National Security Council 秘书长，因与 US 的核谈判及其后中断而地位上升；其兄 Sadeq Larijani 也被视为潜在人选。Mojtaba Khamenei 以延续性为主要优势，且被认为接近 IRGC；Hassan Khomeini 则代表较温和的世袭选项。Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf 因 2025 年 6 月与 Israel 和 US 的 12 天战争而声势提高。
安全机构与宗教机构仍是决定结果的核心。Ahmad Vahidi 本周在前任 Mohammad Pakpour 于战争初期空袭中丧生后升任 IRGC 指挥官；Abbas Araghchi 则以务实 technocrat 身分处理外交与核谈判。Ali Movahedi-Kermani 领导负责任命最高领袖的 88 人 Assembly of Experts，该机构在 2024 年严格筛选的选举后重组。整体来看，Iran 当前不是单一接班人的局面，而是军事、教权与国家机构在战时压力下重新分配影响力。
After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in US and Israeli strikes, Iran’s power structure entered one of the most pivotal moments in its 47-year history. Authority is distributed across parliament, the judiciary, the military, clerics, and councils, but the state is now being run temporarily by a 3-person interim leadership council: President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Alireza Arafi, chosen by the Expediency Discernment Council. That arrangement has turned succession from a long-term question into an immediate struggle.
Several figures hold leverage over both succession and crisis management. Ali Larijani, blocked from the 2024 presidential race, became secretary of the Supreme National Security Council in August 2025 and gained prominence through nuclear talks with the US before they were cut short; his brother Sadeq Larijani is also seen as a possible contender. Mojtaba Khamenei’s main advantage is continuity and his reported closeness to the IRGC, while Hassan Khomeini represents a more moderate hereditary option. Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf also rose after the 12-day war with Israel and the US in June 2025.
Security and clerical institutions remain decisive. Ahmad Vahidi was promoted this week to command the IRGC after predecessor Mohammad Pakpour was killed in the opening strikes of the war, while Abbas Araghchi manages diplomacy and nuclear negotiations as a pragmatic technocrat. Ali Movahedi-Kermani heads the 88-member Assembly of Experts, the body formally responsible for appointing the supreme leader, after tightly controlled 2024 elections. Overall, Iran’s current contest is less about a single obvious heir than about how military, clerical, and state institutions reallocate influence under wartime pressure.