1月24日，中国国防部称最高级别现役军官张又侠与另一名上将刘振立因违反纪律正接受调查，这是自1971年以来解放军最高层最重大的清洗；此事发生在一支约200万人的部队之中，并与西方领导人赴北京寻求交易与确定性同时出现。此举显示习近平对党与军队的控制在收紧，也让外界更担忧台海危机时的决策质量。
2025年，当局因腐败与“政治不端”调查了逾100万人，比两年前多60%，并创下习近平2012年上台以来最高；10月在北京开会时，中央委员会205名正式委员中有37人缺席，被认为正在接受调查。这些数字指向不断扩张的党内“自我执法”体系，它令基层官员恐惧与互不信任，并可能掏空在冲突升级时敢于劝阻的经验型顾问层。
军事态势仍在外扩：海军规模已超过美国，五角大楼预计到2035年还将新增6艘航母，使中国总数达9艘、美国为11艘；核力量预计到2030年至少达到1000枚核弹头，约为2023年库存的两倍。然而若习近平已要求解放军在2027年前具备拿下台湾的能力，即便美国在12月同意了创纪录的$11.1bn军援也未必能替代合格的军事建言，尤其是自2022年以来中央军委6名现役军官中已有5人被清除，而72岁的习近平被普遍认为将于明年以党内会议延长执政并继续强调服从。
On January 24, China’s defence ministry said the most senior uniformed officer, Zhang Youxia, and another top general, Liu Zhenli, were under discipline investigations, the biggest PLA purge at the apex since 1971; it hits a roughly 2m-strong force while Western leaders seek deals and “certainty” in Beijing. The move signals Xi Jinping’s tightening command and heightens concern about decision-making in a Taiwan crisis.
In 2025, authorities investigated over 1m people for corruption and “deviant politics”, 60% more than two years earlier and the highest since Xi took power in 2012; in October, 37 of 205 full Central Committee members were missing, presumed under investigation. These numbers point to a growing internal-policing system that terrorises lower ranks and may hollow out experienced advisers willing to restrain escalation.
Military trends still point outward: the navy is larger than America’s, the Pentagon expects six more aircraft-carriers by 2035 for a total of nine versus America’s 11, and the nuclear arsenal is projected to reach at least 1,000 warheads by 2030—about double the 2023 stockpile. Yet if Xi has ordered the PLA to be able to take Taiwan by 2027, even record U.S. arms aid such as the $11.1bn package agreed in December may not substitute for competent counsel, especially after since 2022 five of six uniformed Central Military Commission officers were ejected and a 72-year-old leader is widely expected to prolong rule next year while prioritising obedience.
Source: Xi Jinping’s purge should worry the world
Subtitle: Installing his yes-men to lead the army could be dangerous for Taiwa
Dateline: 1月 29, 2026 05:47 上午