当较高收入的租客「换到更好房子」时，旧房源的房东为了竞争而降价；老旧楼盘的租金最多已下跌 11%。供给在 2024 年达到峰值：奥斯汀在截至 9 月的三个月新增 10,000+ 套，凤凰城在年底前接近 8,000 套，丹佛在年初超过 5,000 套。新建速度高于全国水平的城市跌幅最大，而低于平均的城市几乎没有变化——这是一个自 1980 年代中期以来未见的周期的一部分。
这种缓解可能只是暂时的：在租金跌得最多的地方，开发商已开始收缩，而全国新入市公寓供给预计将在明年较 2024 年年中峰值下降约一半。可负担住房的建设仍明显更少（每季是数百套，而不是数千套）。Camden Property Trust 拥有近 60,000 套公寓，表示其优先确保入住率而非提高租金，但管理层仍预期供给收紧会恢复租金增长。
Rents eased in several US cities as new luxury buildings opened and pulled tenants out of older apartments. CoStar said the national average rent fell 0.18% in November, the steepest monthly drop in more than 15 years, led by declines in Austin, Denver and Phoenix and in markets such as Naples (FL), Asheville (NC) and Myrtle Beach (SC).
As higher-income renters “trade up,” landlords of older units cut prices to compete; rents in older buildings have fallen by as much as 11%. In 2024 supply peaked: Austin added 10,000+ units in the three months ending September, Phoenix nearly 8,000 before year-end, and Denver over 5,000 early in the year. Cities building above the national pace saw the biggest drops, while below-average builders saw little change—part of a cycle not seen since the mid-1980s.
The relief may be temporary: developers are already dialing back where rents fell most, and nationwide apartment deliveries are expected to drop by about half next year from the mid-2024 peak. Affordable housing production remained far smaller (hundreds, not thousands, of units per quarter). Camden Property Trust, with nearly 60,000 apartments, said it prioritized occupancy over rent hikes, but executives still expect tighter supply to restore rent growth.
