← 返回 Avalaches

穆迪(Moody’s Ratings)称,到 2030 年前数据中心相关投资合计至少需要 3 万亿美元,覆盖服务器、计算设备、数据中心设施与新增电力容量,以支撑人工智能与云计算扩张。其判断是:未来五年将有至少 3 万亿美元资金流入该领域,且融资将依赖多个信贷市场共同承载。

资金来源结构呈“科技巨头主导、信贷市场跟进”的趋势。穆迪预计 6 家美国超大规模云厂商——Microsoft、Amazon、Alphabet、Oracle、Meta 与 CoreWeave——今年的数据中心投资合计将达到 5,000 亿美元。银行仍将扮演“重要角色”,同时更多机构投资者将与银行并行放贷,以匹配资本需求规模。

债务融资与再融资渠道也在扩张并趋于集中。穆迪预计更多美国数据中心将在债务再融资时进入资产支持证券(ABS)、商业地产抵押支持证券(CMBS)与私募信贷市场;在 2025 年创纪录发行之后,新融资规模与集中度将继续上升。仅就美国 ABS 市场而言,2025 年发行量约 150 亿美元,穆迪预计今年将“显著增长”,部分由数据中心建设贷款推动。尽管市场担忧为 AI 革命所需的巨量债务可能孕育泡沫,但穆迪认为新增产能建设需求未见放缓,仍处于“早期阶段”,未来 12–18 个月全球增长有望延续;同时指出产能在未来约 10 年内“某个时点”仍将需要,而技术采用节奏难以预测,并以“3 年前不存在的 ChatGPT 现在消耗大量算力”为例。

Moody’s Ratings says data-center-related investment will require at least $3 trillion through 2030, spanning servers, computing equipment, data center facilities, and new power capacity to support expanding AI and cloud computing. Its core claim is that at least $3 trillion will flow into the sector over the next five years, with financing relying on multiple areas of the credit markets.

The funding mix trends toward “big tech up front, credit markets alongside.” Moody’s expects six US hyperscalers—Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle, Meta, and CoreWeave—to reach $500 billion in data center investment this year. Banks will keep a “prominent role,” while other institutional investors increasingly lend alongside banks to meet the sheer scale of required capital.

Debt funding and refinancing channels are also broadening and concentrating. Moody’s estimates more US data centers will tap asset-backed securities (ABS), commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), and private credit markets when refinancing, and that new financings will grow in size and concentration after record issuance in 2025. In the US ABS market, about $15 billion was issued in 2025, and Moody’s expects volumes to “grow considerably” this year partly due to data center construction loans. While some worry the vast debt supporting the AI boom could form a bubble if technology underperforms expectations, Moody’s says new-capacity demand shows no signs of slowing and remains in “early stages,” with global growth poised to continue over the next 12–18 months; it also notes capacity will be needed at some point in the next ~10 years, even as adoption pace is hard to predict, citing that ChatGPT “didn’t exist three years ago” yet now uses significant compute.

2026-01-14 (Wednesday) · 6e61698883874ab99300dd5daf01ac0c166de296