市场走势立即且幅度很大：周一日经指数大涨近 4% 至 56,000 以上，周二再升 2.3% 至纪录高点 57,650.54，而 Topix 也创历史新高。自 10 月 Takaichi 成为 LDP 党魁与首相以来，日本股市约上涨 30%，其中外资需求是关键驱动：去年外资净买入达 5.4 trillion yen（$34 billion），而仅 1 月就有 2.3 trillion yen。Okasan 引述的历史选举周期数据显示，自 2000 年以来在先前 4 次 LDP 席次超过 60% 的情况（2005、2012、2014、2017）中，日经与 Topix 在之后 100 个交易日各自约上涨 25%。
前瞻指标仍偏多但有条件：Morgan Stanley MUFG 对 Topix 的乐观情境目标为 2026 年底 4,250，而投票后水准在 3,800 以上；部分投资者如今也讨论日经上行超过 60,000。个股动能明显，包括 Furukawa Electric 单日跳升 23%，且自其财报发布以来累计上涨近 50%，但策略师预期市场在消化政策细节、汇率与长端利率定价时将暂时盘整。主要不确定性包括把 8% 食品消费税降至 0% 并维持 2 years 的财政成本与总体影响、更广泛的财政强度问题，以及与中国的地缘政治摩擦和国防支出加速并行。
Japan’s equity rally accelerated after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi led the LDP to a landslide lower-house victory with a 2/3 supermajority, described as the largest post-war win for any party, reinforcing expectations of aggressive fiscal expansion into AI, semiconductors, defense, energy, and space. Investors framed the result as reducing political uncertainty and strengthening a “Japan is back” thesis built on higher domestic yields, a competitive yen, and governance-driven earnings improvement.
Market moves were immediate and large: the Nikkei jumped nearly 4% to above 56,000 on Monday, then rose another 2.3% to a record 57,650.54 on Tuesday, while Topix also hit an all-time high. Since October, when Takaichi became LDP leader and prime minister, Japanese stocks are up about 30%, with foreign demand a key driver: net foreign buying reached 5.4 trillion yen ($34 billion) last year, then 2.3 trillion yen in January alone. Historical election-cycle data cited by Okasan shows that in 4 prior cases since 2000 where the LDP won over 60% of seats (2005, 2012, 2014, 2017), Nikkei and Topix each rose about 25% over the following 100 trading days.
Forward indicators remain bullish but conditional: Morgan Stanley MUFG’s Topix bullish case targets 4,250 by end-2026 versus levels above 3,800 after the vote, and some investors now discuss Nikkei upside beyond 60,000. Stock-level momentum has been sharp, including Furukawa Electric’s 23% 1-day jump and nearly 50% rise since its earnings release, yet strategists expect a temporary consolidation as markets price policy details, exchange rates, and long-term rates. Key uncertainties include the fiscal cost and macro impact of cutting the 8% food consumption tax to 0% for 2 years, broader fiscal-strength questions, and geopolitical friction with China alongside defense-spending acceleration.