从东亚看，美国要求盟友承担更多安全责任，却暗示美军力量不会永远驻守，同时警告不得与中国加深关系，并以关税与就业为筹码索取投资承诺。日本今年承诺未来数年在美投资5500亿美元，韩国同意投资3500亿美元，约相当于其2024年GDP的近19%，且还被告知在台海与南海等“经济重要”地区若中美冲突将不得置身事外。
韩国在内部分裂中仍未走出一年前失败政变的阴影：时任总统尹锡悦正因叛乱罪受审，但温和左右两派正形成对不同“对冲”路径风险的部分共识。民调显示韩国人对中国看法强烈负面，加之商业报复与海上摩擦，促使中左总统李在明淡化亲华言辞，并在今年的关税战压力下使车企等巨头多次在中美市场之间选择美国，不过也有声音警告若美方将韩国排除在亚洲“防务边界”之外就“别无选择”而靠近中国。
李在明与特朗普在10月峰会同意与美国合作建造核动力攻击潜艇（细节仍不清），也让“获得核武”从边缘走向主流，而特朗普阵营对盟友“友好核扩散”显得更能接受。批评者担心这会触发亚洲军备竞赛（日本及或台湾跟进），并促使中俄朝扩充核库；与此同时，朝鲜被称处于35年来最佳战略位置，使首尔更加担忧美国撤军与核保护伞弱化，并被建议与日本等伙伴抱团应对。
Seen from East Asia, America demands that allies take more responsibility for their security while hinting that U.S. troops, aircraft, and ships will not guard them forever, warning against deeper ties with China and tying compliance to tariffs, jobs, and investment. Japan pledged $550bn of U.S. investment over several years, and South Korea agreed to $350bn—nearly 19% of its 2024 GDP—while being told it could not sit out a clash over economically important places such as Taiwan or South China Sea lanes.
South Korea remains deeply divided after a failed coup attempt a year ago, with the former president Yoon Suk Yeol now on trial for insurrection, yet moderates on left and right show glimpses of shared judgments about hedging risks. Polls report strongly negative views of China, and amid boycotts and maritime friction President Lee Jae Myung has toned down pro-China rhetoric, spending more on defence and watching major firms repeatedly choose America over China during this year’s tariff wars—while insiders warn that exclusion from an Asian “defence perimeter” would leave “no choice” but to move closer to China.
An October summit between Lee and Trump backed a project for nuclear-powered attack submarines with America (details still fuzzy) and pushed a nuclear-weapons debate from fringe to mainstream, as Trumpworld seems unusually receptive to “friendly nuclear proliferation.” Critics warn this could spark an Asian arms race (with Japan and perhaps Taiwan following) and drive China, North Korea, and Russia to expand arsenals; with North Korea said to be in its best strategic position for 35 years, Seoul fears U.S. withdrawal and a weakened nuclear umbrella and is urged to tighten ties with partners such as Japan.
Source: How to survive abandonment by America
Subtitle: Allies are planning for a lonelier, harsher world: a report from South Korea
Dateline: 12月 18, 2025 05:43 上午