美国人去年涌入预测市场，如今其中许多人在报税时面临如何申报获利的问题，尽管会计师表示，IRS 仍缺乏相关指引。随著 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等平台扩张，这个问题已从小众变得迫切；使用预测市场的人虽然只有约 3%，但仍代表数以百万计必须申报盈亏的美国居民。主要以美国用户为主的 Kalshi 据报在 3 月的月交易量超过 $12 billion，突显了押注金额已变得多么庞大。

核心问题在于，IRS 尚未针对预测市场发布官方规则，因此纳税人和申报人只能自行摸索。有些人试图把获利当作金融衍生品来处理，其他人则当作赌博获胜所得，还有人当作一般收入；Patrick Camuso 将这些产品形容为赌注、衍生品与投资合约的混合体。对赌客而言，负担可能很重，因为获利必须按每次交易时段逐一追踪，而不是只计算简单的净额。交易者 Nate Meininger 表示，当平台税务文件可用时他会依赖那些文件并咨询会计师；而透过 VPN 使用 Polymarket 的用户情况更困难，因为该平台不发税表，而且美国用户依法被禁止未经许可存取。

文章指出，目前的混乱可能与加密货币课税早期相似，当时 IRS 花了多年才发布更清楚的规则：最初的加密货币指引出现在 2014 年，重大更新随后在 2019 年推出，而交易所直到 2023 年才被要求寄送税表。这种延迟意味著，预测市场可能还会在灰色地带停留一段时间，即使 IRS 正在现代化稽核工具并推动更具针对性的执法；去年它向 Palantir 支付了 $1.8 million，用于一套自订系统，目的是标记高价值稽核案件。实际上，这表示交易者可能需要谨慎且保守地自行申报，而一些人希望该机构对不可避免的错误从宽处理，因为正如一位交易者所说，目前还没有正确的申报方式。

Americans flooded prediction markets last year, and now many of them face the question of how to report winnings at tax time, even though accountants say there is still a vacuum of guidance from the IRS. The issue has moved from niche to urgent as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket expanded, with only about 3 percent of people using prediction markets but still representing millions of US residents who must report gains and losses. Kalshi, which has mostly US users, reportedly reached over $12 billion in monthly trade volume in March, underscoring how large the money at stake has become.

The core problem is that the IRS has not issued official rules for prediction markets, so taxpayers and preparers are improvising. Some are trying to treat gains like financial derivatives, others like gambling winnings, and others like ordinary income, with Patrick Camuso describing the products as a mix of wagering, derivatives, and investment contracts. For gamblers, the burden can be heavy because winnings have to be tracked on a per-session basis rather than as a simple net total. Trader Nate Meininger says he relies on platform tax documents when available and an accountant, while users accessing Polymarket through VPNs face an even harder situation because the platform does not issue tax forms and US users are legally barred from unlicensed access.

The article suggests the current confusion may mirror the early days of crypto taxation, when the IRS took years to issue clearer rules: initial crypto guidance came in 2014, major updates followed in 2019, and exchanges were not required to send tax forms until 2023. That lag implies prediction markets may remain in a gray zone for some time, even as the IRS modernizes audit tools and pursues more targeted enforcement; last year it paid Palantir $1.8 million for a custom system aimed at flagging high-value audit cases. The practical implication is that traders may need to self-report cautiously and conservatively, and some are hoping that the agency will be lenient for unavoidable mistakes because, as one trader put it, there is not yet a correct way to file.