中国主要军工企业去年营收下跌10%，背离全球前100大军火商5.9%增长至6,790亿美元的纪录表现，并使亚大地区成为唯一整体下滑的区域。日本与德国军工营收分别上升40%与36%，美国上升3.8%。多家中资国企受影响：Norinco 营收下降31%至140亿美元，为跌幅最大；AVIC 与 CASC 亦出现下滑。研究指出腐败调查导致合同延期或取消，并使交付进度放缓，尤其波及航太、导弹与火箭军相关项目。
腐败整肃自2012年启动，并在2023年延伸至火箭军高层。2024年八名上将被开除党籍，其中包括在中央军委任职、全国军中排名第二的He Weidong。持续性人事调整触发项目审查与采购延宕，使中国军事现代化的时间表与实现能力出现不确定性。外交官与分析人士仍在评估整肃在指挥链更深层的影响幅度。
尽管中国连续三十年增加国防预算、部署全球规模最大的海军与海警舰队并发展高超音速武器、核力量与无人平台，本轮营收下滑仍暴露系统性瓶颈。SIPRI 指出火箭军计划与航太、网络等先进系统的进度可能也受影响。研究认为中长期国防投资与现代化承诺仍会持续，但将伴随更高成本、更严格采购管控与部分项目延迟。
China’s major military firms saw a 10% revenue drop last year, diverging from a 5.9% rise to a record USD 679 billion among the world’s top 100 arms firms, making Asia-Oceania the only declining region. Japan and Germany recorded 40% and 36% increases, while U.S. revenues rose 3.8%. Several Chinese state-owned firms were affected: Norinco’s revenue fell 31% to USD 14 billion, the steepest drop, with AVIC and CASC also declining. SIPRI attributed the downturn to corruption probes delaying or canceling contracts and slowing deliveries, especially in aerospace, missiles, and Rocket Force–related programs.
China’s anti-corruption campaign, launched in 2012, extended to the Rocket Force leadership in 2023. Eight top generals were expelled in 2024, including He Weidong, the military’s No. 2 and a Central Military Commission member. Continued personnel upheavals triggered project reviews and procurement delays, creating uncertainty around China’s modernization timeline. Diplomats and analysts are still assessing how far the crackdown reaches through the command chain.
Despite three decades of defense-budget growth and the deployment of the world’s largest navy and coast guard fleets alongside hypersonic weapons, nuclear forces, and drones, the revenue contraction exposes structural constraints. SIPRI warns that Rocket Force, aerospace, and cyber programs may face timeline disruptions. It concludes that medium- and long-term defense investment and modernization will continue but with higher costs, stricter procurement controls, and program delays.