风险因素持续扩大：伊朗战争使定价与是否持续等待都更难判断，AI 对就业的冲击也放大不安。Redfin 报告显示，上月签署的 13.4% 交易撤单，与 2023 年高息时期并列三月最高纪录。Redfin 另有调查指出，超过三分之一美国消费者因工作安全疑虑暂缓或取消大额购买，影响房车等支出，且中低端市场正出现显著分化：Zillow 显示最低 5% 价位带的未决销售同比下跌 3.7%，而最高价位区域在 3 月上涨 8%。同时 Redfin 也指出，美国活跃待售房源在截至 4 月 12 日的四周内同比下降 2.7%，仅略高于 100 万间，显示供给端也在收缩。
交易双重困境也出现在必须先卖后买的家庭。Jonathan Miller 指出，很多拿著低于 4% 旧贷的卖家不愿卖出；Northeast 的既有屋交易 3 月跌至 1999 年以来最低，但价格仍走高，主要因存量不足。高收入地区仍逆风上涨：康州 Fairfield County 的高端住宅可溢价高达 15%，旧金山湾区截至 4 月 12 日的未决销售上升 9.6%，甚至出现 1 栋价值 730 万美元的售屋以超过要价 50 万美元成交，现金买方主导。Boston 的 Bhargavi Pandit 将旧居以 190 万美元挂牌，希望先卖后买更大房，但其最担心的是地区就业不确定与链式交易风险，对同档位中等买方形成更大压力。
The U.S. spring housing season is typically the busiest, yet activity remains subdued. In middle- and lower-priced markets such as Texas and Florida, rising mortgage rates, Iran-war uncertainty, and affordability pressure have dampened buyers. Individuals like Nic Parés reduced their budget by about $100,000 and are waiting on rent, while sellers outnumber buyers by about 43%, one of the largest gaps in a decade. Even though mortgage rates later stabilized, pending home sales fell 1.1% from March 2025 and momentum stayed weak, showing that “more sellers than buyers” has not translated into a normal recovery.
Risk has widened the stall further. Redfin reports that 13.4% of contracts signed last month were cancelled, tied with 2023 as the highest March cancellation share on record except for the 2020 Covid shock. More than a third of American workers are delaying or cancelling major purchases, including homes, because they fear unemployment and job instability linked partly to AI-driven workplace anxiety and higher costs such as fuel. At the same time, Zillow data show sharp segment divergence: pending sales in the bottom 5% price tier fell 3.7% year over year, while top-tier pending activity rose 8% in March. Redfin also shows active listings falling 2.7% from a year earlier to just over 1 million homes, which keeps supply tight.
The market is also split by wealth concentration. Sellers holding ultra-low older mortgage rates are waiting, and high-end demand is proving resilient despite macro softness. In the Northeast, March existing-home sales were the lowest since records began in 1999, yet prices rose more than elsewhere, with inventory constraints the key constraint. In Connecticut’s Fairfield County, multimillion-dollar homes can sell about 15% above asking, and in the Bay Area pending sales jumped 9.6% in the four weeks ending April 12, with one Mill Valley estate selling for $7.3 million, nearly $0.5 million above list. For households needing both sides of a move, such as Bhargavi Pandit listing a $1.9 million home in Boston, the binding constraint is execution risk: the sale must close before the purchase can happen.