4月政府宣布「解放日」关税后，不确定性成为主轴：税率高且按国家分配看似随机，之后又频繁调整与延期，让零售商、航运与采购人员在数月内难以判断成本与供应节奏。

零售商的应对集中在时间与成本的再配置：提前大量备货、改用更便宜的替代品或转向低税率国家供应、压价，并扩大Klarna/Affirm等「先买后付」分期；同时削减开支，部分裁员数千人或缩减节日招聘。假期消费较2024年增加，但增长在一些品类主要（甚至全部）由通胀推动；折扣渠道（如TJX旗下TJ Maxx/Marshalls）吸引寻找优惠的新客，Walmart与美元店受益于顾客从Target及更高价零售商转向。展望2026年仍难测，但行业尚未「崩塌」。

In 2025, US retail was unusually volatile: soon after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, consumer confidence slid, and the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey hovered near all-time lows—conditions that typically push shoppers toward more cautious, frugal behavior.

Tariff policy then amplified uncertainty. An April “Liberation Day” announcement introduced high, seemingly country-by-country arbitrary rates, followed by abrupt changes and delays over ensuing months, leaving retailers and even shipping/sourcing teams unsure how to plan costs, inventory, and timing.

Retailers responded by pulling demand forward (importing large inventories ahead of expected tariffs), chasing lower-cost inputs (cheaper product versions, shifting suppliers to lower-tariff countries, pressuring manufacturers), and expanding “buy now, pay later” options (Klarna/Affirm) to spread purchases across a handful of installments. Internally, many cut expenses—some laying off thousands or curtailing seasonal hiring—while promising efficiency gains from new AI tools. Despite visible shopper stress, spending didn’t collapse: holiday sales ran ahead of 2024, though in some sectors inflation drove most or all revenue gains. Value retailers gained share (TJX’s TJ Maxx/Marshalls drew deal-seekers), and Walmart/dollar stores benefited as customers traded down from Target and higher-priced chains; 2026 remains hard to predict, but the bottom hasn’t fallen out yet.