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美国推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗并将其与妻子西莉亚·弗洛雷斯押往美国受审,引发台湾对自身防卫与中国压力的讨论。主要在野党国民党批评美方破坏以规则为基础的国际秩序,并警告北京可能因此更敢于对台采取强硬行动。国民党副主席萧旭岑以「执行国内法」类比,称若中国以海警等名义在台海行使公权力,可能用相同逻辑自我正当化。

争议发生在国民党主导的立法院持续延宕总统赖清德提出、规模约400亿美元的特别国防预算之际;该案以吓阻中国军事威胁为目标,并获美方公开支持。美国亦在12月宣布对台约110亿美元军售,但预算仍因国民党及盟友反对而卡关。执政党官员否认「委内瑞拉今天、台湾明天」的说法,称两者不可比,并认为此举向包括习近平在内的威权领袖传递美方在核心利益上愿采取具体行动,反而让台湾更安心。

事件未在台湾引发广泛恐慌;连亲北京的《中国时报》也称「斩首」台湾领导层更复杂,并点出台湾较成熟的防空与军力,以及可能引发美日介入与西方制裁、冲击中国关键产业。赖清德的预算规划包含打造多层次防空系统「T-Dome」。分析人士认为北京不太会因委内瑞拉而改变对台路线,因中国已在台湾周边进行大型军演;前英国安全大臣汤姆·图根哈特称北京在80年来持续违法,且习近平在新年谈话中强调统一「不可阻挡」。

The U.S. overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro—and the capture and transfer of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to the U.S. for trial—sparked debate in Taiwan about deterrence under rising pressure from China. Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), said Washington was undermining a rules-based order and warned Beijing could feel emboldened. KMT figures argued the episode resembled enforcing domestic law on another jurisdiction.

The dispute intersects with Taiwan’s stalled $40 billion special defense budget proposed by President Lai Ching-te to deter Chinese threats. The plan has been publicly backed by the U.S., which also announced $11 billion in arms sales to Taipei in December, yet it remains blocked in the KMT-controlled legislature. A ruling-party national security official rejected “Venezuela today, Taiwan tomorrow” comparisons and argued the move signals U.S. willingness to act when core interests are involved, which she said reassures Taiwan.

Public anxiety has been limited, and even the pro-Beijing China Times said any attempt to “decapitate” Taiwan’s leadership would be far more complex, citing Taiwan’s air defenses and the likelihood of U.S.-Japan intervention and Western sanctions that could hit China’s key industries. Lai’s plan includes the multilayered “T-Dome” air-defense concept. Analysts say China’s posture is driven by its own timelines, not Venezuela, given its major drills around Taiwan; Tom Tugendhat pointed to persistent violations over 80 years, and Xi Jinping has called unification “unstoppable.”

2026-01-08 (Thursday) · acf2fc9f4a273c619ce65ac394f0160cf7c726d5