尽管仍存地缘政治与能源市场不确定性，日本股市反弹速度超过预期。Nikkei 225 本月上涨约16%，已收复先前损失，领跑 Topix 和 S&P 500，同期两者约升8%。Kirk 将韧性部分归因于结构性因素，例如战略石油储备及液化天然气来源多元化。另一方面，企业盈利季、经营计划修订及年度股东大会预期将加大资本效率和资产负债表运用的监督。日本交易所集团的资料亦显示，三月唯有北美投资者是净买入日本股票的海外群体。
Kirk 认为，三月日经下跌13%愈来愈被视为全球性风险而非日本特有问题，这有助于资金回流。政策面上，日本金融厅预计今年夏季完成修订版治理守则，要求企业减持交叉持股、处理过剩现金并改善回报，可能进一步托底。日本股权估值持续重估仍取决于权益报酬率（ROE）。虽有些大型银行将目标定在约15%，但 Topix 成分约44%企业的 ROE仍低于8%。鉴于中东局势可能再升温而拖累全球增长，Goldman Sachs 已将 12 个月 Topix 目标从 4,300 下调至 4,200；此风险仍是主要下行因素。
US investors are returning to Japanese equities as confidence rebuilds after the Middle East shock, Goldman Sachs Japan chief strategist Bruce Kirk said. The rebound has been concentrated in the Nikkei 225, where US buying rose as the yen stabilized around 160 per USD and as the index outperformed the broader Topix. Kirk added that Japanese authorities are unlikely to allow a significant further yen decline from current levels, which makes unhedged US investors more willing to buy Japanese shares. He said, “Once the market shifts from short-term to mid-term focus, buying can come in very quickly.”
Japan’s stocks are rebounding faster than expected despite geopolitical and energy uncertainty. The Nikkei 225 is up about 16% this month, recovering earlier losses and outperforming both Topix and the S&P 500, each up about 8%. Kirk says part of this resilience comes from structural factors such as strategic oil reserves and diversified LNG sourcing. He also expects domestic catalysts—including earnings season, mid-term plan updates, and annual shareholder meetings—to increase scrutiny of capital efficiency and balance-sheet use. March data show that North American investors were the only overseas group that was a net buyer of Japanese stocks.
Kirk argues the March 13% drop in the Nikkei is increasingly seen as global-risk driven rather than Japan-specific, which supports re-entry. On policy, Japan’s Financial Services Agency is expected to finalize a revised corporate governance code by summer, pressuring firms to unwind cross-shareholdings, redeploy excess cash, and improve returns. A sustained rerating still depends on ROE. Some major banks target around 15%, but about 44% of Topix-listed companies still post ROE below 8%. As downside risks, Goldman has trimmed its 12-month Topix target from 4,300 to 4,200 because further Middle East escalation could hurt global growth, to which Japan remains highly sensitive.