但竞争格局和资本市场已迅速转向。Anthropic（由前 OpenAI 员工于2021年成立）正在谈判一轮估值超过 900 billion 美元的新融资，已高于 OpenAI 的 852 billion 美元。全球股市的领先风口也从基础模型开发商转向受益于 AI 资料中心繁荣的晶圆代工与晶片生态；费城半导体指数自3月下旬以来上涨了约54%。十年前以约31 billion 美元收购的 Arm 现值超过 220 billion 美元，SoftBank 去年8月投资 Intel 的 2 billion 美元现值 9.4 billion 美元，总回报约370%，也反映出 AI 基础设施上行为 Arm 带来的估值推动。
然而在会计上的盈利之外，流动性风险正在抬头。SoftBank 正在筹措一笔以 OpenAI 持股作抵押的 10 billion 美元保证金贷款，初始利差预计约425个基点，折算利率接近7.88%，明显高于其4月发行的未抵押10年美元票据8.5%成本。Arm 目前的公众流通比例虽低（SoftBank 约87%持股）但日成交额仍有 1.4–1.7 billion 美元，利于融资与套现；OpenAI 则缺乏同等深度。CreditSights 因此估算 SoftBank 存在约 32 billion 美元的资金缺口，这似乎推动 Son 推进 Roze 的美国IPO，计划7月在德州资料中心举办 Analyst Day，并讨论将亏损的机器人与消费性硬体单位剥离。
SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son has invested a total of $64.6 billion in OpenAI, and after the March 2026 $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, the stake is about 13%. The first $34.6 billion tranche was mostly invested at a $260 billion valuation and looked successful; Bloomberg Intelligence says the latest revaluation allows SoftBank to mark about $45 billion in paper gains, representing roughly a 129% return on a disclosed basis, even though it is still unclear when OpenAI can further monetize in public markets.
But competitive dynamics and capital markets have shifted quickly. Anthropic, founded by former OpenAI staff in 2021, is negotiating a new funding round at over $900 billion valuation, already above OpenAI’s $852 billion. Market leadership has also shifted from foundation-model developers toward semiconductor ecosystems that benefit from the AI data-center boom: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up about 54% since late March. Arm, bought about ten years ago for around $31 billion, is now worth more than $220 billion, while SoftBank’s August investment of $2 billion in Intel is now valued at $9.4 billion, a total return of about 370%, reflecting valuation support from AI infrastructure upside.
Yet beyond paper profits, liquidity risk is rising. SoftBank is arranging a $10 billion margin loan secured by OpenAI shares, with an initial spread around 425 bps and an all-in rate near 7.88%, clearly above the 8.5% cost of its unsecured 10-year dollar note issued in April. Arm still has low public float (SoftBank about 87%) but daily turnover remains $1.4–$1.7 billion, which supports financing and monetization; OpenAI lacks comparable depth. CreditSights therefore estimates a SoftBank funding gap of about $32 billion, which seems to be driving Son to push Roze’s U.S. IPO plans, hold a July analyst day in a Texas data-center venue, and discuss spinning out the loss-making robotics and consumer-hardware units.