两名Bloomberg新任风险投资记者介绍了当前初创与AI生态的关键量化信号。背景集中在2025年下半年至2026年前景：尽管“AI泡沫”担忧升温，资本投放规模未显著收缩。超大额融资持续推进，估值上行成为主线，反映出资金供给与竞争强度仍处高位区间。
具体案例显示估值与轮次的极端化分布：Anthropic据称讨论将估值提升至3500亿美元以上；早期公司同样获得巨额资金，Humans&完成4.8亿美元种子轮、估值44.8亿美元。相对地，风险暴露同步上升：Thinking Machines Labs在被报道寻求500亿美元估值融资两个月后，出现核心人员流失；大型科技公司通过许可与“并购式招聘”规避传统并购（如Nvidia–Groq），压缩VC经由M&A实现回报的概率。
流动性端的数值信号更为分化。VC押注2026年IPO窗口，潜在候选包括OpenAI与SpaceX。但近期表现偏弱：Figma与Klarna上市后回撤明显，其中Index Ventures支持的Figma在7月底上市后股价一度升至142.92美元，随后跌破33美元的IPO价。结构层面，Lightspeed Venture Partners、Thrive Capital与General Catalyst扩展至类私募与基金中的基金，显示VC商业模式向多资产、二级与SPV交易加速转型。
Two new Bloomberg venture capital reporters outline quantitative signals shaping startups and AI. The timeframe centers on late 2025 into 2026: despite rising fears of an AI-driven bubble, capital deployment has not materially slowed. Mega-rounds continue at higher valuations, indicating sustained capital supply and intensified competition across the market.
Deal data highlight valuation polarization by stage. Anthropic is reportedly discussing a valuation of $350 billion or more, while very early-stage firms are also attracting outsized checks, such as Humans& raising a $480 million seed round at a $4.48 billion valuation. Risk indicators are rising alongside scale: Thinking Machines Labs sought financing at a $50 billion valuation before losing key staff, and Big Tech increasingly favors licensing and acquihires over traditional M&A (e.g., Nvidia–Groq), constraining VC exit paths via acquisitions.
Liquidity signals are mixed. VCs are positioning for a stronger IPO window in 2026, with potential listings from OpenAI and SpaceX. Recent outcomes have been weak: Figma and Klarna fell after listing, with Index Ventures-backed Figma peaking at $142.92 per share after late-July trading before dropping below its $33 IPO price. Structurally, firms such as Lightspeed Venture Partners, Thrive Capital, and General Catalyst are expanding into fund-of-funds, private-equity-like deals, secondaries, and SPVs, signaling a shift toward diversified, liquidity-seeking VC models.