日本政府计划在2025财年同时削减与提高不同税目,以在刺激投资与消费的同时填补财政缺口。汽油附加税将在12月31日取消,柴油附加税将在4月1日取消,造成合计1.5兆日圆的税收减少。2023财年中,研发减税造成9479亿日圆的税收损失,薪资增幅相关减税造成7278亿日圆的减收,两者均被列入削减或调整选项。财务省认为现行研发减税对投资刺激效果有限,而经产省主张扩大制度。高收入者「1亿日圆税负反转点」及最低税额制度也被列为调整候选,以增加负担率。
若无足够对冲措施,税收减少恐削弱财政纪律,10年期新发国债殖利率已上升至1.73%。六党共识要求以严格支出改革作为油料减税的财源保障;若年末前未确定替代方案,将于次年决定。日本税收因企业利润与通膨上升而增加,但大规模减税可能迫使政府寻找新收入来源。对景气刺激政策的财政疑虑已引发债券抛售。
新方案也包含鼓励国内设备投资的税制,包含一次性折旧与针对一定规模资本支出的优惠,以增加可支配资金并促进加薪与再投资。另有延长对投资新创企业的减税,以及对企业将总部自东京移至地方的减税。个人方面,所得税标准扣除额拟因生活成本提高而扩大。住宅贷款减税拟放宽适用条件,住宅最低面积由50平方公尺降至40平方公尺。
Japan plans simultaneous tax cuts and hikes for fiscal 2025 to stimulate investment and consumption while filling revenue gaps. The gasoline surcharge will be abolished on December 31 and the diesel surcharge on April 1, removing a combined 1.5 trillion yen in revenue. R&D tax relief cut 947.9 billion yen in fiscal 2023, and the wage-increase incentive cut 727.8 billion yen; both are candidates for reduction. The Ministry of Finance argues the R&D scheme has shown limited investment impact, while METI seeks expansion. Adjustments to the “100-million-yen barrier” and minimum taxation for high earners are under review to raise effective burdens.
Insufficient offsets risk weakening fiscal discipline, with 10-year JGB yields rising to 1.73%. A six-party agreement requires strict spending reform to fund fuel tax cuts; if alternatives are not finalized by year-end, decisions will be made the following year. Rising corporate profits and inflation have lifted tax revenues, but large cuts may force the government to seek new sources. Fiscal concerns over Takaichi’s stimulus stance have driven bond selloffs.
New measures include incentives for domestic capital expenditure, such as full first-year depreciation and benefits for projects above defined thresholds, intended to free cash for wage hikes and reinvestment. Additional proposals extend incentives for startup investment and relocation of corporate headquarters from Tokyo to regional areas. For individuals, the standard deduction may expand to reflect higher living costs. Mortgage tax breaks would widen eligibility by lowering the minimum qualifying home size from 50 to 40 square meters.