中国的可再生能源扩张已达到前所未有的规模。2024 年全球总装机发电容量约为 10 太瓦，而中国的太阳能供应链每年可生产约 1 太瓦的光伏板。过剩产能将全球平均发电成本压低至每千瓦时约 0.04 美元，可能是历史最低水平。相比之下，美国 2024 年新增太阳能装机约 50 吉瓦，而中国仅 2025 年前五个月就新增约 197 吉瓦，其中 5 月单月达 92 吉瓦，即每日约 3 吉瓦。
这一激增源于政策拐点。中国在 2025 年初宣布，5 月之后并网的新增可再生能源不再享受与煤电挂钩的价格支持，促使企业在截止日前集中抢装。政策生效后，新增装机骤降，随后四个月平均每月仅约 10 吉瓦，约为此前节奏的一半。过量供给使电网承压，2024 年 8 月新疆因电压波动发生区域停电。经济层面，供给过剩与电网平衡要求导致负电价在山东等地频繁出现。
制造端同样承压。多晶硅、硅片和组件产能全面过剩，价格战侵蚀利润，而约 10% 的效率提升即可淘汰落后产线。类似动态已在电动车领域显现：特斯拉上海工厂 168 天建成，随后中国车企迅速扩张。到 2024 年，中国近一半新售汽车为插电式，并出口超过 550 万辆。最终受益者主要是消费者，低价清洁能源正在重塑全球能源与产业结构。
China’s renewable energy expansion has reached unprecedented scale. In 2024, total global installed electricity capacity was about 10 terawatts, while China’s solar supply chain alone can produce roughly 1 terawatt of panels per year. Oversupply has pushed average global electricity generation costs down to about $0.04 per kilowatt hour, possibly the lowest ever. By comparison, the United States added about 50 gigawatts of solar in 2024, while China added roughly 197 gigawatts in the first five months of 2025, including 92 gigawatts in May alone, or about 3 gigawatts per day.
This surge was driven by a policy inflection point. In early 2025, China announced that new renewable capacity connected after May would lose price support pegged to coal power, triggering a rush to install before the deadline. Afterward, additions collapsed, with the following four months averaging about 10 gigawatts per month, roughly half the prior pace. The resulting oversupply strained the grid, and in August 2024 voltage fluctuations caused a regional blackout in Xinjiang. Economically, excess generation and grid balancing needs produced frequent negative electricity prices, especially in Shandong Province.
Manufacturing faces similar stress. Polysilicon, wafer, and panel capacity far exceeds demand, price wars have erased profits, and efficiency jumps of around 10 percent can render factories obsolete. Parallel dynamics appear in electric vehicles: Tesla’s Shanghai factory was built in 168 days, after which Chinese firms scaled rapidly. By 2024, nearly half of cars sold in China were plug-ins, and exports exceeded 5.5 million vehicles. The primary beneficiaries are consumers, as cheap clean energy reshapes global energy and industrial systems.