越南被视为避开中国关税的主要替代地，但数据揭示结构性依赖难以切断：越南年出口额 4,050 亿美元，其中约 30% 进入美国；2024 年外资流入逾 250 亿美元、近 30% 为中资；本地具出口能力的玩具厂仅约 100 家，而中国约为 10,000 家。Learning Resources 过去逾 80% 产品在中国制造，如今转移至越南导致成本上升 10%–15%。中国元素仍主导供应链：多种塑料原料无法本地采购、模具大多产自中国且每个迁移成本约 5,000 美元，零部件如电池接点、螺丝与电路板也继续依赖中国输入。

越南的劳动规模（5,300 万人）不到中国的十分之一，生产率亦偏低，越南工厂每名员工产出比中国低最多约 40%，且劳动密集程度更高。基础设施改善有限，仍存在影响运输的路段瓶颈。越南持续吸引投资，产业区扩张带动当地地价上涨；政府征地补偿与转卖价格差距达近七倍。职业教育体系快速增长，学费每月仅 10 美元，毕业就业率逾 95%，在部分学校中入学人数按年增长 20% 至今达 3,000 人。但这些结构性进步仍不足以补上中国的规模、自动化与完整供应链。

Learning Resources 为因应平均 31% 的中国关税与 20% 的越南关税，已将价格上调平均 6%，并投入超过 30% 的人员处理关税与迁移事务，导致原计划产品减少约 100 个。若贸易战延续，成本压力将进一步转嫁消费者。行业普遍面临材料简化、配件减少与品质下降。尽管越南具成长潜力，企业判断中国的专业度、密集供应商体系与基础设施在 2025 年仍无可替代，转移制造更像从中国移走工厂，却无法真正将中国成分移出生产过程。

Vietnam is a primary alternative to avoid China tariffs, yet data shows structural dependence is difficult to unwind: annual exports total 405 billion dollars, about 30% going to the US; more than 25 billion dollars of foreign investment flowed in last year, with nearly 30% from China; only about 100 export-ready toy factories operate in Vietnam versus roughly 10,000 in China. Learning Resources historically sourced over 80% of products from China, and relocating to Vietnam raises costs by 10%–15%. Chinese inputs remain dominant: many plastics are unavailable locally, most molds come from China and cost about 5,000 dollars each to move, and components such as battery contacts, circuit boards and screws remain China-dependent.

Vietnam’s labor force of 53 million is less than one-tenth of China’s, and productivity is lower, with output per worker up to 40% below Chinese levels and higher manual-labor intensity. Infrastructure remains uneven, with last-mile bottlenecks affecting logistics. Investment continues to surge, pushing land prices sharply higher; compensation for seized farmland can differ from resale prices by nearly sevenfold. The vocational-education system is expanding rapidly, with tuition at 10 dollars a month, job-placement rates above 95% and enrollment rising as much as 20% annually to 3,000 students. Yet these structural gains remain insufficient to match China’s scale, automation and dense supplier networks.

To respond to average tariffs of 31% on China and 20% on Vietnam, Learning Resources has raised prices by an average of 6% and allocated over 30% of staff to tariff and relocation work, cutting roughly 100 planned products. Continued trade conflict will force further consumer pass-through. Industry-wide effects include reduced accessories, downgraded materials and lower overall quality. Although Vietnam shows strong potential, companies conclude that China’s expertise, supplier depth and infrastructure cannot be replicated in 2025, making relocation effectively the removal of a factory from China without removing China from the manufacturing process.