电池与关键矿物构成第二条主线。中国供应全球销售电池超过四分之三；其锂电产能在2024年已超过2太瓦时，较总需求高出60%，加剧「内卷」并促使整并，但也推动更多电池储能系统(BESS)以因应AI资料中心与电商带动的用电上升。关键矿物在中国于10月祭出出口管制许可后更具地缘风险，美国与盟友加速打造替代供应链，但面临成本、许可与诉讼等障碍。
资本市场与SoftBank策略把多条趋势串起来：中国生成式AI新创MiniMax与智谱分别计划在香港募资最高约41.9亿港元(5.38亿美元)与43.5亿港元；MiniMax称2025年前9个月收入逾70%来自中国大陆以外。德勤预估2026年香港将有160宗新上市、募资至少3000亿港元。SoftBank对OpenAI「梭哈」：追加225亿美元后总投入达347亿美元、约持股11%，并以65亿美元收购Ampere、投资20亿美元于Intel、约53亿美元收购ABB机器人业务等，且预期截至2026年3月止年度投资达421亿美元。
AI infrastructure remains the 2026 centerpiece as the U.S., Japan, China, Australia, India and Southeast Asia race to build data centers. “Sovereign AI” is still under 10% of global demand but is projected to rise. Revenue signals matter: OpenAI grew from $1.6B in 2023 to nearly $13B by Aug 2025, and Anthropic rose from about $100M in 2023 to billions in 2025, supporting continued hardware pull-through.
Batteries and minerals add parallel constraints. China supplies over three-quarters of batteries sold worldwide, while its lithium-ion capacity topped 2 TWh in 2024—about 60% above total demand—pressuring margins and accelerating consolidation. The upside is more battery energy storage (BESS) to meet rising power demand from AI data centers and e-commerce. Critical minerals remain politicized after China’s October export-control licensing moves, pushing the U.S. and allies toward costlier, slower-to-permit alternative supply chains.
Capital markets and SoftBank’s strategy tie the themes together. China’s MiniMax (seeking up to HK$4.19B / $538M) and Zhipu (HK$4.35B) are moving toward Hong Kong listings; MiniMax says over 70% of 2025’s first nine months revenue came from outside mainland China. Deloitte projects 160 Hong Kong IPOs raising at least HK$300B in 2026. SoftBank doubled down on OpenAI: an additional $22.5B brought its total to $34.7B (11% of shares), alongside deals like $6.5B for Ampere and planned FY2025 investments of $42.1B (year ending March 2026).
