美国油气行业在过去十年中裁减了约40%的劳动力，约25万个岗位消失，而同期原油产量却增长了约50%。自2014年页岩油泡沫破裂后，行业通过更快、更便宜的钻井技术、自动化和机器人应用，以及企业并购，大幅提升效率。到2025年，美国原油日产量达到创纪录的1380万桶，但在用工规模上仅相当于2014年高峰期的不到三分之一，单个钻机的产量约为十年前的四倍。

传统上，高油价会带来钻井活动和就业反弹，但这一关系已经断裂。即便在2025年产量创新高、政治环境更有利钻井的情况下，油气行业就业人数仍徘徊在三年来的最低水平。自2023年以来，行业并购交易规模已超过5000亿美元，比此前三年高出20%以上，但头部企业仍在2025年宣布裁员。能源高管普遍认为，新井投资需要油价约65美元/桶，而过去三个月油价维持在60美元/桶左右，接近盈亏平衡却不足以刺激扩张性招聘。

效率提升改善了企业业绩，却进一步压缩就业。部分公司在资本支出下降的同时仍实现产量超预期增长，显示“去劳动力化”趋势正在固化。专家指出，未来海上钻井将高度自动化甚至无人化，行业将长期呈现“更高产量、更少岗位”的结构。对个人而言，这意味着被裁撤岗位的回流概率极低，十年内形成的40%就业缺口基本成为永久性损失。

The US oil and gas industry cut about 40% of its workforce over the past decade, eliminating roughly 250,000 jobs, while crude output rose by about 50% over the same period. After the shale bubble burst in 2014, producers boosted efficiency through faster and cheaper drilling technologies, automation, robotics, and consolidation. By 2025, US crude production reached a record 13.8 million barrels per day, yet employment stood at less than one third of its 2014 peak, with each active rig producing roughly four times as much oil as a decade earlier.

Historically, higher oil prices led to more drilling and hiring, but that link has broken. Even in 2025, with output at record highs and a more pro-drilling political environment, payrolls hovered near a three-year low. Since 2023, mergers and acquisitions have exceeded $500 billion, more than 20% higher than the prior three years, yet major producers still announced job cuts in 2025. Executives say new drilling generally requires prices near $65 per barrel, while prices have stayed around $60 for three months, enough to keep wells running but not to justify large-scale hiring.

Efficiency gains have improved corporate performance while further reducing labor demand. Some companies exceeded production targets despite lower capital spending, reinforcing a structural shift toward fewer workers. Experts expect future offshore drilling to be highly automated or unmanned, locking in a long-term model of higher output with fewer jobs. For workers, this means the probability of rehiring is minimal, and the roughly 40% employment loss accumulated over a decade is effectively permanent.