总经数据提供了催化剂：供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management, ISM）报告称，美国制造业活动在 1 月以自 2022 年以来最快的速度扩张，之后该运输指标再创历史最高收盘价；随后在周三又小幅走高，因一份强于预期的就业报告显示劳动市场正在趋于稳定，强化了这样的论点：较高的经济活动会在机械上增加出货量，进而推升对运输服务的需求，同时也作为一种技术性讯号，促使资金转向景气循环早期的受益者。
策略师形容运输股对经济敏感，并被视为一种「抗 AI」（“AI resistant”）交易，因其核心功能难以用软体复制；但也有人警告这波涨势可能已有部分反映在价格中：一名花旗（Citigroup）分析师在 ISM 数据公布后下调了 4 家卡车运输公司（包括 Old Dominion）的评级，认为改善的背景大多已反映在估值中；也有人指出 ISM 的扩张期才持续 1 个月，意味著目前证据仍有限，然而多头则主张，即便营收、运量与定价仅有温和成长，若需求加速，对卡车业者而言也可能转化为不成比例的增量利润率。
US transportation and other “old economy” stocks tied to moving goods and people (roads, rails, air, water) have rallied sharply, reversing years of lag versus major benchmarks as investors rotate away from recent big-tech winners amid AI-related disruption fears and hyperscalers’ large capital-spending plans; the Dow Jones Transportation Average has led, outperforming the S&P 500 by 13 percentage points over roughly the past 1.5 months, a gap described as near the largest since the financial crisis, with constituents ranging from rail and freight to airlines.
Macro data provided the catalyst: the Institute for Supply Management reported US manufacturing activity expanded in January at the fastest pace since 2022, after which the transportation gauge set another all-time closing high; it then inched higher again on Wednesday following a stronger-than-expected jobs report that suggested the labor market is stabilizing, reinforcing the thesis that higher economic activity mechanically increases shipment volumes and therefore demand for transportation services, while also acting as a technical signal to shift into early-cycle beneficiaries.
Strategists describe transportation as economically sensitive and part of an “AI resistant” trade because its core functions are difficult to replicate with software, but there are cautions that some of the move may already be priced in: a Citigroup analyst downgraded 4 trucking companies (including Old Dominion) after the ISM print, arguing the improving backdrop was largely reflected in valuations; others note the ISM has only been in expansion for 1 month, implying limited evidence so far, yet bulls argue that even modest revenue, volume, and pricing growth can translate into outsized incremental margins for truckers if demand accelerates.