十九年足以让一次股价“回到原点”显得漫长：美国银行股价在12月12日（并在12月15日再次）创下新高，终于回到并超过其在2006年的峰值。思科在12月10日才刚刚超过其在2000年互联网泡沫期的高点，而日本Topix指数直到去年才刷新始于1989年的历史高位。

尽管全球股价自2007年10月的峰值以来已上涨135%，但在约10,000家当前市值超过1亿美元且在2007年11月前已存在的上市公司中，约36%至今仍低于危机前夕的股价水平。在美国，约四分之一的股票在将近二十年后仍为下跌者，包括市值1,720亿美元的Verizon仍低于2007年高点、花旗仍较高点低约80%，甚至科技板块也有22%的公司低于危机前水平。

在其他市场，长期落后者比例更高：按美元计，德国约42%、英国53%、香港70%的股票仍低于2007年水平。与此同时，回报高度集中：自2007年以来，苹果、英伟达、奈飞分别上涨4,043%、19,920%、24,807%，而研究还显示1925—2023年间美国股票中不足3%贡献了全部股东财富净增量且多数股票回报为负。

Nineteen years can make a share-price recovery feel endless: Bank of America hit new records on December 12 (and again on December 15), finally moving back above its 2006 peak. Cisco only surpassed its 2000 dotcom-era high on December 10, while Japan’s Topix index did not set a fresh all-time high until last year after a slump that began in 1989.

Even though global share prices are up 135% from their October 2007 peak, laggards are common: among roughly 10,000 listed firms worth more than $100m today that existed before November 2007, about 36% still trade below their pre-crisis highs. In America, around one in four stocks remains down, including $172bn Verizon below its 2007 peak and Citigroup about 80% under its high, and even 22% of technology firms trade below pre-crisis levels.

Long-term losers are more prevalent elsewhere: about 42% of German stocks, 53% of British stocks, and 70% of Hong Kong stocks sit below 2007 levels in dollar terms. Returns are concentrated in a few winners—since 2007 Apple is up 4,043%, Nvidia 19,920%, and Netflix 24,807%—and research finds that from 1925 to 2023 less than 3% of U.S. stocks accounted for all net shareholder-wealth creation while most had negative returns.

Source: This Christmas, raise a glass to concentrated market returns

Subtitle: A surprisingly large share of companies lag far behind their former greatness

Dateline: 12月 18, 2025 05:44 上午