Serena Zhou指出，核心通膨传导仍然温和，较大的PPI-CPI差距显示制造商难以把投入成本转嫁给下游，利润率受压。伊朗战争引发的全球能源危机与AI投资热潮推高石油、晶片与金属成本，但国内需求疲弱、供给过剩与激烈竞争限制消费价格。汽车燃料价格年增21%，高于4月的17%；食品、酒类与烟草价格下跌0.9%。
AI相关需求正在改变部分价格结构：通讯设备（含智慧型手机）CPI价格上升7%，高于4月的4%；电子业PPI上升2.1%，为1996年有资料以来最快。出口价格4月年增5%，创2023年4月以来最大升幅，但涨幅主要集中在原油、金属与半导体。Lynn Song认为中国正由通缩转向低通膨；Abhijit Surya则称，中东与全球能源市场仍是主要不确定性。
China’s consumer inflation unexpectedly stalled in May while factory prices rose at their fastest pace in almost four years. CPI increased 1.2% year on year, unchanged from April and below the 1.3% median Bloomberg estimate; a 16% fall in pork prices dragged CPI down by 0.3 percentage point. Core CPI rose only 1.1%, below April’s 1.2%. By contrast, PPI climbed 3.9% year on year, up from 2.8% in April, widening the PPI-CPI gap to the largest since June 2022.
Serena Zhou said pass-through to core inflation remains muted, and the larger PPI-CPI gap shows manufacturers’ difficulty passing input costs downstream, compressing margins. The global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war and the AI investment boom lifted costs for oil, chips, and metals, but weak domestic demand, oversupply, and harsh competition restrained consumer prices. Vehicle fuel prices jumped 21% year on year, faster than April’s 17%, while food, alcohol, and tobacco prices fell 0.9%.
AI-related demand is reshaping some price segments: CPI prices for communication equipment, including smartphones, rose 7%, up from 4% in April; electronics-industry PPI increased 2.1%, the fastest in data back to 1996. Export prices rose 5% year on year in April, the biggest gain since April 2023, but increases were concentrated in crude oil, metals, and semiconductors. Lynn Song sees China moving from deflation into low inflation, while Abhijit Surya said the Middle East and global energy markets remain the main uncertainty.