投资人指出 Alphabet 在 Google Search、Google Cloud、YouTube、Waymo、Gemini、TPU AI 晶片及对 Anthropic 的投资等面向高度分散，这是其相较于较依赖晶片需求、较易受循环影响的 Nvidia 的核心优势。Alphabet 在 2016 年初曾短暂成为最大股票，但目前仍落后 Apple（4.3T）、Microsoft（3.1T）和 Amazon（2.9T）。最新财报季显示其搜寻与云端成长优于预期，并且分析师预期 TPU 相关基础设施收入将从 2026 年的 30 亿美元（3B）提升至 2027 年的 250 亿美元（25B）；Sundar Pichai 也表示 Google Cloud 客户将可将 TPU 运用于自有资料中心。
分析师修正速度加快：过去一个月，Alphabet 2026 年每股盈余估值共计上修约 19%，2027 年预估上调超过 7%。但在前 12 个月已上涨 160% 后，未来 12 个月平均目标价约为 422 美元，仅较周五收盘价高 5.4%，显示近期延续涨势可能受限。Alphabet 目前约以 27 倍本益比交易，明显高于过去 10 年平均低于 21 倍，且接近 2008 年以来的高位；同时仍存在 Gemini 或其他顶级模型被竞争者超越的风险。尽管如此，CooksonPeirce 的 Luke O’Neill 仍认为在当前价格下仍值得买入，且此观点与 Warren Buffett「以公平价格买入优秀公司」的准则相近。
Over the past year, Alphabet Inc. has moved from an AI afterthought to a near-dominant player across the AI ecosystem, and it is now close to overtaking Nvidia Corp. as the world’s largest company. Alphabet closed Friday with a market capitalization of US$4.8 trillion, while Nvidia was below that level before a three-day rally pushed it to about US$5.2 trillion. The gap has narrowed sharply over the last six months: on Oct. 31, Nvidia was US$4.9 trillion and Alphabet was below US$3.4 trillion; since then Alphabet shares rose 40% while Nvidia rose only 6.3%. Alphabet gained 34% in April, its best month since 2004, and was down as much as 2.3% on Monday.
Investors argue that Alphabet’s advantage is its diversified footprint across Google Search, Google Cloud, YouTube, Waymo, Gemini, TPU AI chips, and its Anthropic stake, versus a potentially more cyclical Nvidia tied largely to chip demand. Alphabet briefly became the largest stock in early 2016, but is still behind Apple at US$4.3 trillion, Microsoft at US$3.1 trillion, and Amazon at US$2.9 trillion. Earnings season showed stronger-than-expected growth in search and cloud, and analysts expect TPU-related infrastructure revenue to rise from about US$3 billion in 2026 to US$25 billion in 2027. Sundar Pichai said Google Cloud customers will soon be able to run TPUs in their own data centers.
Analyst expectations have been revised sharply upward: over the past month, consensus for Alphabet’s 2026 earnings is up about 19%, while 2027 expectations are up more than 7%. Yet the upside may be limited after a 160% gain in the previous 12 months, because the 12-month average analyst price target is only US$422, about 5.4% above Friday’s close. Alphabet now trades at around 27 times earnings, above its 10-year average below 21 and near a multi-year high. The key risks remain that Gemini or rival models could be leapfrogged. Still, CooksonPeirce’s Luke O’Neill argues this is still a fair price for a wonderful company, aligning with Warren Buffett’s standard for buying quality businesses at reasonable valuations.