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Elon Musk 的 SpaceX 估值高达 1.75 兆美元(USD 1.75tn),相当于去年营收的 92 倍,这正促使基准基金经理人进行显著的资产重新配置。对于追踪相对于市场指数表现的经理人而言,不购买 SpaceX 的股份在功能上等同于做空该公司。Morningstar 的数据显示,在 3,203 个基准指数下管理著 41.1 兆美元(USD 41.1tn)资产的 6,006 档美国注册共同基金和 5,100 档 ETF 中,对前 300 大指数的集中分析捕获了这些资产的 92%,总计约为 38 兆美元(USD 38tn)。

在前 300 大基准指数中,股票指数占管理资产的 27.6 兆美元(USD 27.6tn)。此外,对前 75 大股票指数的分析显示,19.4 兆美元(USD 19.4tn)包含美国大盘股,而 6.9 兆美元(USD 6.9tn)则不包含。大约 1.2 兆美元(USD 1.2tn)的大盘股基准资产与特定行业或高股息指数挂钩,SpaceX 不太可能被纳入其中。为了适应超大型股的首次公开募股(IPO),各家指数提供商最近调整了其规则。CRSP、Russell 和 S&P DJI 在 5 个交易日后纳入超大型股 IPO,MSCI 在 10 天后纳入,而 Nasdaq 则在 15 天后纳入。

由于这些快速通道方法论的修改,旨在保持指数中性持股的基金经理人将被迫在 7 月 4 日前执行估计累计达 142 亿美元(USD 14.2bn)的 SpaceX 股票购买。这些购买预计将分波段进行:6 月 19 日为 85 亿美元(USD 8.5bn),6 月 26 日为 10 亿美元(USD 1.0bn),而 7 月 3 日为 47 亿美元(USD 4.7bn)。此强制性订单量比先前规则下要求的 10 亿美元(USD 1.0bn)多了 132 亿美元(USD 13.2bn),尽管这比 S&P 500 允许纳入的情况低了 110 亿美元(USD 11.0bn)。

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Elon Musk's SpaceX, valued at up to $1.75 trillion (USD 1.75tn) representing 92 times last year’s revenues, is prompting significant asset reallocation among benchmarked fund managers. For managers tracking performance relative to market indices, failing to buy SpaceX shares is functionally equivalent to shorting the company. Morningstar data reveals that out of 6,006 US-registered mutual funds and 5,100 ETFs managing $41.1 trillion (USD 41.1tn) in assets across 3,203 benchmarks, a focused analysis of the top 300 indices captures 92% of these assets, totaling approximately $38 trillion (USD 38tn).

Within the top 300 benchmarks, stock indices account for $27.6 trillion (USD 27.6tn) of the assets under management. Furthermore, an analysis of the top 75 equity indices shows that $19.4 trillion (USD 19.4tn) include US large-cap stocks, while $6.9 trillion (USD 6.9tn) exclude them. Approximately $1.2 trillion (USD 1.2tn) of large-cap benchmarked assets are tied to sector-specific or high-dividend indices where SpaceX is unlikely to be included. To accommodate mega-cap IPOs, various index providers have recently adjusted their rules. CRSP, Russell, and S&P DJI include mega-cap IPOs after 5 trading days, MSCI after 10 days, and Nasdaq after 15 days.

Due to these fast-track methodology modifications, fund managers aiming to maintain index-neutral positions will be forced to execute an estimated cumulative $14.2 billion (USD 14.2bn) of SpaceX stock purchases by July 4. These purchases are projected to occur in waves: $8.5 billion (USD 8.5bn) on June 19, $1.0 billion (USD 1.0bn) on June 26, and $4.7 billion (USD 4.7bn) on July 3. This mandatory order volume is $13.2 billion (USD 13.2bn) greater than the $1.0 billion (USD 1.0bn) required under previous rules, though it remains $11.0 billion (USD 11.0bn) lower than if the S&P 500 had allowed inclusion.
2026-06-14 (Sunday) · 39d16e4bb3e66799faa826dc2145f604c37a8fe1