AI狂热已经从投资圈扩散到普通人：一位几乎没有投资经验的文化界朋友也在问是否买英伟达。黄仁勋在台北发布两款新品，把英伟达的AI算力收费口从数据中心扩展到笔记本和企业桌面机。文章认为英伟达估值很贵但有理由，不过未来3到5年仍高度不确定。

文章的核心判断是：AI技术真实，但估值可能有泡沫。AI与VR/AR不同，Meta曾投入超过800亿美元建设元宇宙，却未进入大众日常；AI则已通过手机、搜索框和语音交互渗透到老人、小孩和普通劳动者。Anthropic新一轮融资后估值升至9650亿美元并首次超过OpenAI，显示资本热度与盈利能力之间仍有明显差距。

投资建议偏向指数和分散配置，而不是押注单一黑马。2023年以来，美股AI相关标的整体上涨约200%至1000%，A股的工业富联、寒武纪、海光信息等也因国产替代逻辑大涨。伯克希尔持有近4000亿美元现金，并在一季度净卖出超过80亿美元。文章结论是：不要押单注，不要长期空仓，在可承受仓位内参与未来3到5年可能出现的中国AI龙头机会。

AI enthusiasm has spread from investors to ordinary people: even a cultural-sector friend with little investment experience is asking whether to buy Nvidia. Jensen Huang released two new products in Taipei, extending Nvidia’s AI-computing tollgate from data centers to laptops and enterprise desktops. The article argues Nvidia is expensive for reasons, but the next 3 to 5 years remain highly uncertain.

The central judgment is: AI technology is real, but valuations may be bubbly. AI differs from VR/AR, where Meta spent more than $80 billion building the metaverse yet failed to enter daily life. AI has already penetrated phones, search boxes, and voice interactions among elderly people, children, and ordinary workers. After Anthropic’s latest financing, its valuation rose to $965 billion and surpassed OpenAI for the first time, showing a clear gap between capital enthusiasm and earning power.

The investment advice favors indexes and diversification instead of betting on one dark horse. Since 2023, U.S. AI-related stocks have risen about 200% to 1000% overall, while China’s Foxconn Industrial Internet, Cambricon, and Hygon have also surged on domestic-substitution logic. Berkshire holds nearly $400 billion in cash and net sold more than $8 billion in the first quarter. The conclusion is: avoid single bets, avoid staying in cash too long, and participate within affordable positions in possible Chinese AI leaders over the next 3 to 5 years.